1960 Study Predicted Global Catastrophe on Nov. 13, 2026
A physicist's doomsday forecast tied to population explosion has gained renewed attention as the date approaches, though current trends suggest otherwise.
A study from 1960, published in the journal Science, predicted that the world would end on November 13, 2026, due to an exponential population explosion. Physicist Heinz von Foerster, a scientist at the University of Illinois, forecast that humanity would reach an infinite population by this date, leading to a scenario where people would be "squeezed to death" rather than starve.
Von Foerster's research team analyzed 24 estimates of world population dating back 2,000 years, assuming that human innovation and cooperation would drive an unending population boom. This contrasted with fears of starvation that were prevalent at the time. The concept gained further traction eight years later with the publication of Paul R. Ehrlich's influential book, "The Population Bomb."
However, by 1993, the study's predictions began to diverge from actual population trajectories. The global birth rate has since fallen to approximately half of its 1960 level. Experts now suggest that the rapid population growth von Foerster and Ehrlich observed was primarily fueled by advancements in medicine, sanitation, and food production that improved child survival rates, rather than a drastic increase in birth rates themselves.
As mortality rates decreased and with the spread of contraception and urbanization, families began having fewer children. This shift led demographers and mathematicians like Columbia University professor Joel Cohen to note that while their predictions were accurate looking backward, they were mistaken in projecting forward.
Current projections from the United Nations World Population Prospects indicate that the global population is expected to peak at around 10.3 billion in 2084 before beginning to decline. Economists express concern that this demographic stagnation could lead to significant challenges, including economic downturns and strain on healthcare systems.
Separately, some technologists have raised alarms about the potential for artificial intelligence to pose an existential threat. Researcher Jacob Coxon, who resigned from AI firm Anthropic, has warned of the risks associated with the rapid development of AI, suggesting that unchecked progress could lead to catastrophic outcomes if sufficient safeguards are not implemented promptly.