Disagreements among election forecasters are emerging in 12 U.S. House races, according to a TIME analysis of ratings from 10 reputable sources. While most forecasters broadly agree on the direction of the remaining 435 House elections, these dozen contests present differing predictions, with some favoring Democratic candidates and others Republican.
The races highlighted by the analysis are in Alabama's 2nd congressional district, Colorado's 5th, Kentucky's 6th, Michigan's 10th, New York's 17th, Ohio's 7th, Pennsylvania's 1st, Texas' 15th and 35th, Virginia's 1st and 5th, and Wisconsin's 1st.
The forecasters included in the analysis are Cook Political Report (CPR), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), FiftyPlusOne (FPO), Fox News Power Rankings (FNPR), Inside Elections (IE), Race to the WH (RWH), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB), Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model (SB), Split Ticket (ST), and The Economist (TE).
In Alabama's 2nd district, SCB predicts a lean toward Democratic incumbent Rep. Shomari Figures, while ST calls it a toss-up, and eight other forecasters favor Republican Rhett Marques. Colorado's 5th district sees SCB favoring Democrat Jessica Killin, FNPR and ST leaning Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Crank, and DDHQ and TE rating it Likely Republican, with the remaining five calling it a toss-up.
Kentucky's 6th district has FPO and SCB leaning toward Republican Ralph Alvarado, and ST favoring Democrat Zach Dembo, while seven forecasters rate it a toss-up. Michigan's 10th district shows IE tilting toward Republican Michael Bouchard, while DDHQ, FPO, SCB, SB, and ST favor Democrat Christina Hines, with the other four rating it a toss-up.
New York's 17th district is rated a toss-up by CPR and IE between Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley. SCB predicts a lean toward Lawler, while seven forecasters favor Conley. In Ohio's 7th, RWH rates the contest between Republican incumbent Rep. Max Miller and Democrat Brian Poindexter as Tilt Republican, IE as Tilt Democratic, SCB and ST as Lean Democratic, and SB as Likely Democratic, with five others calling it a toss-up.
Pennsylvania's 1st district sees TE rating the race between Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democrat Bob Harvie as Likely Republican, while SCB and SB favor Democrats and FPO rates it Likely Democratic. The remaining six forecasters consider it a toss-up.
Texas' 15th district has FPO leaning toward Republican incumbent Rep. Monica De La Cruz, while IE tilts toward Democrat Bobby Pulido, and SCB, SB, and ST lean Democratic. The other five forecasters call it a toss-up. In Texas' 35th district, SCB and ST favor Democrat Johnny Garcia over Republican Carlos De La Cruz, TE rates it Likely Republican, and the remaining seven call it a toss-up.
Virginia's 1st district has FPO, SCB, and SB leaning toward Democrat Shannon Taylor over Republican incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman, while IE, DDHQ, and TE rate the race as Tilt, Lean, and Likely Republican, respectively. The other four forecasters view it as a toss-up. Conversely, in Virginia's 5th district, SCB favors Democrat Tom Perriello, while all nine other forecasters, including SB and TE, back Republican incumbent Rep. John McGuire III.
Wisconsin's 1st district shows FPO leaning toward Democrat Mitchell Berman, while CPR, DDHQ, IE, RWH, and SCB favor Republican incumbent Rep. Bryan Steil, and TE rates it Likely Republican. The remaining three forecasters call it a toss-up.
Beyond these 12 races, 182 are unanimously rated Safe or Solid Democratic, and 31 lean Democratic. On the Republican side, 108 are unanimously rated Safe or Solid Republican, and 72 lean Republican. An additional 30 races have at least one toss-up rating but no party disagreement among forecasters, split between 17 favoring Democrats and 13 favoring Republicans.
These ratings reflect forecasters' assessments as of Nov. 3 and are based on polling and fundamental assumptions, not guaranteed outcomes.