Meta Developing Prediction Markets App to Challenge Industry Leaders
The experimental app, internally known as Arena, could allow users to predict outcomes of various events, initially using a points system.
Meta is reportedly developing a new prediction markets app, internally codenamed "Arena," aiming to compete with established platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The social media giant's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, has tasked a small team with building the experimental application, according to a report citing individuals familiar with the matter.
The standalone smartphone app is designed to enable users to make predictions on a wide array of subjects, including sports, politics, and significant news events. Unlike some existing prediction markets that involve real money, Arena is expected to initially utilize a video game-style points system, though the possibility of incorporating real-money betting in the future has not been ruled out.
Arena would operate separately from Meta's core platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger. The company aims to leverage its substantial global user base, which exceeds 3.5 billion daily active users across its applications, to drive adoption for the new service. This initiative is part of a larger strategy by Zuckerberg to identify emerging online behaviors and create new products as growth on Meta's established platforms matures.
Prediction markets have seen a significant surge in popularity over the last two years, attracting users who wager on outcomes ranging from elections and sporting events to entertainment awards and economic developments. The sector has become a substantial market, with operators reportedly handling over $50 billion in trades last year and exceeding $130 billion in volume this year. This growth has attracted interest from various entities, including traditional gambling operators, cryptocurrency firms, and media companies.
However, the industry has also faced increasing regulatory scrutiny, with concerns raised about the potential for traders to exploit non-public information for profit on bets tied to real-world events.
This is not Meta's first venture into prediction markets. The company previously launched an app called Forecast in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, which also used a points-based system for users to make forecasts about future events. Meta eventually discontinued the Forecast service in 2022.
Arena is one of several experimental projects reportedly under development at Meta. Another initiative, referred to as "Meta Photos," is focused on creating new forms of media utilizing artificial intelligence.