AI Threatens High-Paying Tech Jobs, With Programmers at High Risk, New Calculator Shows

Artificial intelligence is poised to automate a substantial number of tasks across various professions, with computer programmers identified as being at a high risk of replacement, according to a new interactive tool from Kickresume. The calculator, which assesses the automation risk for 756 job roles, utilizes research from AI developers Anthropic and OpenAI. Jobs are classified as 'high risk' if their automation potential exceeds 30 percent.

The highest risk, at 83 percent, is for telephone operators and office administration or support roles. Computer programmers follow closely with a 67 percent risk level. Legal secretaries, administrative assistants, and other office support workers are also identified as high-risk professions, with a 64 percent likelihood of automation. Customer service representatives face a 63 percent risk, largely due to the increasing prevalence of AI-powered chatbots.

Peter Duris, CEO and Co-Founder of Kickresume, explained that the primary predictor of a job's vulnerability to AI is the extent to which AI can already perform its tasks or is likely to do so in the near future. Tasks such as scheduling meetings, taking notes, email correspondence, and document processing are increasingly being handled by AI.

Risk Not Tied to Salary

Duris noted that the risk of AI replacement is not necessarily correlated with salary. High-paying tech roles, such as Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers, are ranked 19th among the top 20 most at-risk jobs, with a significant portion of their tasks being automatable.

Conversely, jobs requiring physical labor and practical skills show the lowest risk of automation. Trades like stonemasons, painters, roofers, and various construction roles all have a zero percent risk score. Similarly, professions demanding distinctly human qualities, such as preschool special education teachers and librarians, also show no risk of AI replacement.

Current Impact and Future Outlook

While some businesses have made workforce reductions citing AI, such as Twitter founder Jack Dorsey's dismissal of over 4,000 employees at his firm Block in February, current data does not indicate widespread unemployment increases in highly AI-exposed roles. Anthropic's analysis, for instance, shows no significant rise in unemployment for roles like coders and customer service representatives since ChatGPT's public launch in 2022.

However, experts caution that hiring slowdowns in these sectors may be imminent. Research from Stanford University suggests that while AI's overall impact on employment might be small, it could be contributing to a challenging job market for recent graduates. In the UK, job vacancies have nearly halved since their 2022 peak, a trend some experts attribute partly to AI's influence, alongside broader economic factors.

Duris observed a year-on-year decrease in job postings in AI-exposed sectors, particularly in the UK. A survey also indicated that 21 percent of respondents had either lost a job to AI or knew someone who had, reflecting a growing perception of AI's proximity to job displacement.

Kai-Fu Lee, author of "AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order," warned that the employment landscape faces a crisis comparable to the agricultural shifts during the Industrial Revolution, predicting that half of current jobs could be automated within 15 years. Lee highlighted that AI, while powerful, cannot replicate human creativity, complex strategic planning, precise hand-eye coordination, or genuine empathy and human connection. He stressed the importance of retraining for individuals facing potential displacement.