The upcoming World Cup final is poised to play a significant role in determining the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner, as top contenders showcase their talents on the sport's biggest stage. Lionel Messi, despite being in the later stages of his career, continues to deliver exceptional performances that keep him in contention for individual accolades.
Messi's eight goals and four assists have been instrumental in guiding Argentina to a second consecutive World Cup final. He currently leads the Golden Boot race, tied with Kylian Mbappe, who also has eight goals. Victory for Messi would mark a historic achievement: captaining his nation to back-to-back World Cup triumphs.
Emerging talent Lamine Yamal of Spain is also making a strong case. While his goal contributions in the tournament have been more modest, with one goal and no assists in seven games, he has been a vital component of the Spanish team that has reached its first World Cup final since 2010. Yamal had a remarkable season for Barcelona, scoring 24 goals and providing 18 assists in 45 games, despite an injury-enforced absence for the final month. For Yamal to be considered the world's best, a World Cup victory with Spain would likely be necessary.
Other notable contenders are also navigating the final stages of the tournament. France's Kylian Mbappe, a consistent goalscorer for years, has scored eight goals in the current World Cup. However, a trophyless season with Real Madrid and World Cup disappointment may hinder his chances.
Harry Kane had a prolific 2025-26 season, scoring 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich, who secured a league and cup double. However, semi-final exits in the Champions League and the World Cup with England could impact his Ballon d'Or prospects. Kane himself has noted the importance of major trophies, stating that scoring many goals is insufficient without winning significant titles.
Bayern teammate Michael Olise has impressed with 22 goals and 31 assists in 52 games for the German club, and carried that form into the World Cup, leading the tournament with five assists. However, France's semi-final defeat has cast a shadow over his chances.
Erling Haaland, despite winning the Premier League Golden Boot for the third time in four seasons and securing an FA Cup and Carabao Cup double with Manchester City, might find his World Cup performance for Norway, who did not qualify for the tournament, limiting his individual award potential.
Ballon d'Or holder Ousmane Dembele, who won Ligue 1 and the Champions League for the second consecutive season, had his output limited by injuries. Nevertheless, a strong World Cup showing with five goals and two assists has bolstered his chances. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of PSG also had a notable Champions League campaign but did not qualify for the World Cup with Georgia.
Jude Bellingham, who played a crucial role in England's semi-final run, is also mentioned, but an injury-plagued season and a lack of team silverware make his chances slim. Declan Rice is expected to be a top-10 contender, having been a key player for Arsenal in their Premier League victory and their near-European championship run.