Eight of the world's 10 most populous countries are not among the qualifiers for the FIFA World Cup, highlighting a recurring challenge for nations with massive populations to achieve global footballing success. This phenomenon persists despite considerable investment and widespread enthusiasm in some of these countries.
China, for example, has not returned to the World Cup since its sole appearance in 2002. Despite becoming an Olympic powerhouse in recent decades, its men's football program has not mirrored this success. Mark Dreyer, a China-based football expert, suggests that while there's no inherent reason China cannot produce world-class players, political interference and a top-down approach have hindered progress. Heavy investment in the game since the 2010s, including attracting high-profile foreign players to its professional league, has not yielded World Cup qualification.
Indonesia, another populous nation, has also only qualified for the World Cup once, in 1938 as the Dutch East Indies. The team did reach the final qualifying round for the 2026 World Cup, but this success has been attributed in part to recruiting European players with Indonesian heritage rather than exclusively developing homegrown talent. Jerome Wirawan, News Editor at BBC Indonesian, noted that at times, the starting lineup for Indonesia featured eight or nine European-born players.
Other highly populated nations have faced similar difficulties. Pakistan and Bangladesh were eliminated in the group stage of the Asian qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, with Pakistan failing to secure a win in six matches. Pakistan's national football team has also been suspended by FIFA multiple times between 2017 and 2025 due to internal political disputes within its governing body.
The challenge for these nations involves more than just population size. Developing a strong footballing infrastructure, fostering grassroots talent, and maintaining stable governance within football federations are crucial factors that appear to be limiting the global reach of footballing talent from these populous countries. While sports like cricket have found a strong following in some of these nations, as seen with children playing on beaches in India, the path to World Cup qualification remains elusive for their football teams.