Team USA is set to face Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 of the 2026 World Cup on Wednesday night, a matchup that places the U.S. Men's National Team in an unfamiliar position as a significant favorite in an elimination game.
This marks the first time in modern history that the U.S. has been heavily favored in a knockout stage match. The team's only previous experience as a projected favorite in a knockout game was in 2010, when they were slight favorites against Ghana before losing 2-1. The last time the Americans won a World Cup knockout match was 24 years ago, in 2002. While the 2002 squad was spirited, the current team is considered more talented.
After strong performances in the group stage, dismantling Paraguay and Australia before losing a non-decisive match against Turkey, the U.S. now faces a different challenge. Bosnia and Herzegovina is known for its physicality and is expected to adopt a defensive strategy, aiming to exploit set pieces for scoring opportunities. This approach was nearly successful against Canada in their tournament opener, where Bosnia scored from a set piece before conceding a late equalizer.
The U.S. team, however, possesses the midfield talent of Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie, who are expected to facilitate quick and decisive ball movement crucial for breaking down a compact defense. The attacking versatility of players like Christian Pulisic and Sergino Dest on the wings, combined with the presence of striker Folarin Balogun, provides multiple avenues to stretch the Bosnian defense.
Balogun has been a notable offensive threat throughout the tournament. Should the U.S. break the deadlock, Bosnia would likely be forced to abandon its defensive posture. The Bosnian defense has shown vulnerabilities, having conceded four goals to Switzerland and allowed Qatar to score and create chances in a recent match.
Bookmakers have installed the U.S. as a significant favorite to advance, with DraftKings listing them at -700. One projection suggests a play on the United States to win by at least 1.5 goals.