USC's opening game of the 2026 college football season against San Jose State saw sparse attendance at the Coliseum, drawing criticism and speculation about the team's prospects and coach Lincoln Riley's job security. However, analysts argue that attendance figures are influenced by a confluence of factors unrelated to team quality, including inconvenient scheduling, high ticket prices, and adverse weather conditions, and that past data offers little evidence of a direct link between crowd size and playoff contention.
The Trojans' 42-26 victory over the Spartans was met with derision online due to the low turnout at kickoff. The 12 p.m. Pacific Time start, coupled with Los Angeles traffic, expensive parking, a perceived weak opponent, and extreme heat and humidity, contributed to a significantly reduced crowd. While the stadium did fill somewhat by the end of the first quarter, the game's early outcome and the unfavorable conditions led to many fans departing before the final whistle.
Commentators quickly linked the poor attendance to USC's potential to miss the College Football Playoff and suggested Lincoln Riley is "on the hot seat." This perspective, however, overlooks broader trends in college football attendance. Experts point out that fan turnout is not always indicative of a team's quality or success. Programs with consistently large fan bases, even during losing seasons, illustrate this disconnect. Conversely, even well-regarded teams can struggle with attendance for early-season, noon kickoffs in hot weather.
This phenomenon has been observed across the sport. The Florida Gators, for example, have experienced difficulties filling "The Swamp" for noon games, with reporters noting empty seats even in what was considered a well-attended contest. Other major programs like Ohio State, Virginia Tech, and Ole Miss have seen attendance declines. Notably, Clemson did not sell out a single game in a championship-winning season, and LSU experienced viral images of an emptier "Death Valley" in 2025.
The decline in college football attendance is attributed to several factors. The increasing accessibility of games via streaming services, rising ticket prices amidst economic pressures, the comfort of watching games at home, and a potential decrease in dedication among younger alumni, who may be more focused on academic pursuits, all play a role. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic provided an experiment in crowd impact, with NFL data from 2019-2020 showing that home-field advantage remained largely consistent even without fans, suggesting crowd noise has a less significant impact than often believed.
Despite the concerns about attendance, the USC game itself showed flashes of dominance when the starters were on the field. In the first half, San Jose State's offense struggled significantly against USC's first- and second-string defenses, averaging just 3.9 yards per play and gaining only 102 total yards on 29 plays while the starters were in. The Trojans' backups and third-stringers did allow the Spartans to move the ball later in the game, partly due to injuries among USC's players.
History provides examples of teams that started seasons with unconvincing wins or struggled at times against lesser opponents before going on to achieve significant success, including playoff berths. In 2024, Oregon, a playoff team, narrowly defeated Idaho 24-14 as heavy favorites. In 2025, eventual SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs had a close game against FCS opponent Austin Peay, and undefeated national champions Indiana beat Old Dominion 27-14 in their season opener, allowing considerable yardage.
While questions surrounding USC's backups and defensive secondary may warrant attention, and Lincoln Riley's tenure has not always inspired complete confidence, the early-season attendance figures and a weak fourth-quarter performance against San Jose State do not definitively predict the Trojans' playoff hopes for 2026. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava had a strong performance, and freshman defensive end Luke Wafle made highlight plays. The team faces a challenging schedule, but the opening game's attendance woes offer little concrete insight into their ultimate success.