UFC Fight Night Vegas 123: Predictions and Best Bets for Moicano vs. Nolan

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to return on Halloween night with UFC Fight Night Vegas 123, featuring a full card of 12 fights. The event is headlined by a lightweight showdown between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan.

Oddsmakers anticipate that nine of the scheduled fights will conclude before the final bell. The main event pits Moicano, a seasoned fighter who has faced top-tier competition in his division, against Nolan, who is making his first headlining appearance in the UFC. Nolan has never competed in a five-round bout, and Moicano is seen as a significant step up in his career.

Moicano has a history of defeating solid fighters and has shown ability in both striking and submissions. Nolan, conversely, has demonstrated weaknesses in defending takedowns and has been knocked down by less formidable opponents. The prediction favors Moicano to secure a finish within the five-round distance.

In the co-main event, the welterweight bout between Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith is expected to provide insight into Smith's potential. Smith, recognized for his athletic prowess, faces his toughest challenge to date as the underdog in his UFC career. Despite taking the fight on short notice, Smith's statistical averages in takedowns and significant strikes per minute are exceptionally high. This matchup is viewed as an opportunity to bet on Smith at a reduced price, with a prediction for him to win by knockout or TKO in the first round.

Full card picks for UFC Vegas 123 include:

• Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden: Fight to go the distance.
• Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos: Yana Santos to win by moneyline.
• Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov: Lebosnoyani by KO/TKO.
• Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope: Marshall by submission.
• Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren: Sezinando by submission.
• Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee: Erosa by KO/TKO.
• Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall: Gall by KO/TKO.
• Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot: No pick.
• Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez: Alencar to win by moneyline or decision.
• Lucia Szabová vs. Tainara Lisboa: Szabova by submission.

Erich Richter, a contributor to the New York Post's betting coverage, has demonstrated a consistent return on investment in MMA betting, focusing on long-shot bets. Since 2022, Richter has achieved a return of 30.15 percent.