Arsenal has been projected by Opta's supercomputer to win the 2026-27 Premier League title, successfully defending their crown from the previous season. The projection is based on 10,000 data-led simulations of the upcoming campaign.
Mikel Arteta's side secured their first league title in 22 years last term, fending off Manchester City after finishing as runners-up in three consecutive seasons. Should Arsenal win again, Arteta would become only the fourth manager in Premier League history to retain the title, joining the ranks of Sir Alex Ferguson, Jose Mourinho, and Pep Guardiola.
According to the supercomputer's analysis, Arsenal is the favorite with a 38% chance of lifting the trophy again in May. A potential concern for Arsenal is the impact of injuries to key players; the team's win percentage reportedly drops significantly when defender William Saliba is unavailable.
Mikel Arteta will look to be just the fourth boss to lead his side to back-to-back Premier League titles.
Manchester City is identified as Arsenal's most likely challenger, with a 20.5% chance of winning the league under new manager Enzo Maresca. The team has undergone a summer of change, with significant transfer activity including the reported £116 million acquisition of Elliot Anderson, and speculation surrounding the potential departure of Rodri.
Mana-chester City are seen as the second most likely team to be crowned champions.
Liverpool is projected to be the third most likely champion, with a 9.2% chance, despite new boss Andoni Iraola's comments about the team's current ability to sustain desired performance levels. The Reds finished fifth last season under Arne Slot. Following Liverpool are rivals Manchester United, with a 6.2% chance of winning the league under manager Michael Carrick.
Aston Villa, who recently sold Morgan Rogers for a British transfer record £117 million to Chelsea and saw Youri Tielemans depart for Manchester United, are ranked fifth favorites at 4.8%. Chelsea, managed by new boss Xabi Alonso, follows closely with a 4.1% chance, benefiting from a clearer fixture schedule after missing European qualification last season. Tottenham, under Roberto De Zerbi, is given a 2.9% chance of claiming the title, despite being among the league's biggest spenders in the transfer market this summer with reported marquee signings like Sandro Tonali (£100 million) and Mateus Fernandes (£85 million). These significant expenditures come as the club has recorded back-to-back 17th-place finishes, narrowly avoiding relegation on the final day of the previous season.
At the lower end of the table, the three newly promoted teams are considered the most vulnerable to immediate relegation. Hull City, who earned promotion through the playoffs, faces the highest risk at 38.7%. Ipswich Town and Coventry City follow with relegation probabilities of 31.2% and 27.9%, respectively.
Hull City earned promotion to the top flight via the playoffs, but are seen as favourites to go down.
Sunderland is ranked as the fourth most likely team to be relegated at 25.9%. This projection is based on their performance metrics from the previous season, which included low open-play expected goals and a high number of shots faced. Despite their potential relegation risk, Sunderland notably qualified for European competition last season after being predicted by some to finish last.
Fulham, under new manager Alvaro Arbeloa, is considered at risk of relegation with a 23.4% probability, following the departure of former boss Marco Silva. Leeds United and Crystal Palace are also predicted to be in relegation battles, with chances of 22.5% and 20%, respectively. Other teams facing relegation probabilities include Nottingham Forest (18.1%), Brentford (16.3%), Everton (13.6%), and Bournemouth (13.1%).
Fulham are viewed as potential surprise strugglers under their new boss Alvaro Arbeloa.