Statcast Data Suggests Controversial Roof Ball Was Not a Home Run

A dramatic ninth-inning play in the recent Major League Baseball postseason game between the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers has ignited debate, centering on a fly ball hit by the Padres' Ty France that struck the roof of American Family Field. While players and fans questioned the call, Statcast data suggests the ball would not have resulted in a home run even if unobstructed.

In the top of the ninth inning, with the Padres trailing, France hit a high fly ball that impacted the roof support system before falling into the field of play, where it was caught by an outfielder for an out. Following a review, umpires upheld the ruling that the ball was in play, citing a specific ground rule for American Family Field which states that a batted ball striking the roof in fair territory is considered "In Play." If caught by a fielder, the batter is out, and runners advance at their own risk.

Despite the official ruling, France expressed his belief that the ball would have been a home run. "You would think with all the technology we have now we’d be able to make a clear call on that," France said after the game. "There should be something put in place right there. That shouldn’t be an out. … We’ve got ball tracking. We’ve got exit velo. We’ve got projected distances. We have all that stuff."

However, Statcast data measured France's hit with an exit velocity of 105.3 mph and a launch angle of 49 degrees, projecting a distance of 325 feet. The shortest dimension of the outfield wall at American Family Field is 342 feet. Statcast's analysis indicated that balls hit with similar characteristics are outs 99.5% of the time and rarely travel far enough to clear the fence in Milwaukee.

Further analysis of Statcast data from 2024, 2025, and 2026 shows that out of 15 batted ball events with comparable exit velocity and launch angle, 14 were outs. The longest recorded distance for such a hit was 337 feet. While acknowledging variables like weather and spin can influence ball flight, the data strongly suggests that France's hit would not have been a home run.

The game itself saw the Brewers ultimately secure a victory, with the controversial call not definitively altering the outcome, according to the analysis of the batted ball data.