SMU enters Week 1 as a three-point favorite against Florida State in Tallahassee, a sign of the pressure on the Seminoles' program following a unconvincing season opener. Florida State secured a victory over New Mexico State in Week 0 but struggled to cover the 31.5-point spread, showing signs of rust and undisciplined play.
Despite winning by 17 points, Florida State's performance against the Aggies was concerning. The Seminoles allowed 4.8 yards per play, and New Mexico State converted 10 of 17 third downs. The close time of possession also indicated struggles against an opponent considered one of the weaker teams in the country.
Head coach Mike Norvell faces increased scrutiny after two consecutive disappointing seasons. A strong performance was anticipated in the home opener, but the team's inability to dominate left questions about its readiness for the upcoming schedule, which includes games against SMU and Alabama.
Offensive Concerns for Florida State
Florida State's offense was described as one-dimensional, with quarterback Ashton Daniels continuing to struggle with turnovers and ineffective ball movement against a defense that may rank among the worst in FBS. Running back Ousmane Kromah had a strong showing, rushing for over 100 yards in Week 0, but the team's reliance on the run game may be predictable for SMU's defense.
SMU's Offensive Potential
The SMU Mustangs are expected to present a significant challenge through the air. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, who previously played at Furman, has the potential to exploit a Florida State secondary that showed vulnerabilities against New Mexico State's passing game. SMU's experienced offensive line is expected to provide Jennings with adequate time to operate against the Seminoles' defense.
While SMU's offense is anticipated to score points, concerns exist regarding its defense following the departure of defensive coordinator Scott Symons and several key players from the previous season. However, it is suggested that the Mustangs' defense may not need to perform at its peak to secure a victory on Monday night.
Betting Outlook
The betting market favors SMU, with the Mustangs positioned as three-point favorites. Analysts suggest that the market has not yet fully adjusted to Florida State's perceived struggles, making SMU an attractive pick. Alternative spreads of -9.5 and -13.5 for SMU are also being considered, indicating a belief that the game could significantly tilt in the Mustangs' favor.