Scientists have employed data analysis and supercomputer modeling to predict the winner of the upcoming World Cup final between Argentina and Spain. Researchers from Northeastern University have examined team play, tactical prowess, and individual player statistics to forecast the likely outcome of the highly anticipated match.
According to the analysis by Northeastern University's NetSI Sport research Group, Spain is projected as the higher-performing team. Brennan Klein, director of the group, stated that Spain's team play and tactical approach suggest they should win the game. The study highlights Spain's evolved 'attacki–taka' style of play, which emphasizes quick passes and an increase in progressive passes—long vertical passes designed to move the ball up the pitch swiftly. Spain leads the tournament in progressive passes, averaging 70 per game.
However, the analysis also acknowledges Argentina's strong performance, largely attributed to star player Lionel Messi. The data indicates that 12 of Argentina's 19 goals in the tournament have been scored after the 75th minute, suggesting a tendency for late-game comebacks. "There's just some kind of mystical inevitability about Argentina in the last 10 minutes," Dr. Klein noted.
Messi, at 39, is one of the oldest players in the tournament but is reportedly performing at a higher level than in 2022, with his expected goal rate doubling. Despite his age, the analysis revealed that Messi spends 64% of his travelled distance walking, compared to approximately 45% for players like Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe. This walking pace, Dr. Klein suggested, allows Messi to conserve energy for decisive dribbling plays in later stages of matches, citing his performance against England as an example.
Ashley Phillips, head coach for Northeastern's women's soccer team, suggested that Messi's individual brilliance could still lead Argentina to victory, describing it as "dark horse magic."
Prior to the tournament, scientists from the University of Liverpool also conducted simulations to predict the winner. Their model, based on 1,000 simulations, also favored Spain as the most likely victor, assigning them a 26.1% probability of winning. Argentina was given a 12.4% chance. The Liverpool team's simulations also identified Norway as a potential dark horse with a 3.6% chance of winning the trophy.