Aryna Sabalenka, the reigning two-time US Open champion, is set to face Jessica Pegula in the women's singles semifinal on Thursday. Sabalenka, who has won three Grand Slam titles since her breakthrough at the 2023 Australian Open, is considered the favorite against Pegula, despite a recent stretch of inconsistent performances leading into the tournament.
Pegula has reached 11 major quarterfinals in her career and this will be her fourth semifinal appearance. She reached one Grand Slam final on the US Open grounds in 2024, where she lost to Sabalenka. Despite Pegula's strong hard court record in 2026, with a 34-7 win-loss record and 15-3 since Wimbledon, her history in major semifinals presents a challenge.
Sabalenka's path to this semifinal included dropping only one set in her first five matches, silencing doubts about her form after early exits at Wimbledon, the Canadian Masters, and the Cincinnati Open.
In their career matchups, Sabalenka holds a 9-4 advantage over Pegula. Sabalenka is currently listed as a -182 favorite in the semifinal contest. While Pegula is expected to have the crowd's support, analysts suggest Sabalenka's superior skill and experience in high-stakes Grand Slam matches give her a significant edge. One betting prediction favors Sabalenka to win by 1.5 sets.
Pegula last celebrated a win at the U.S. Open on Tuesday.
