Relegations to League One Becoming More Frequent, Analyst Says

The phenomenon of English football clubs suffering successive relegations, dropping from the Premier League to League One in consecutive seasons, is becoming increasingly common. Historically a rare occurrence, the 'double drop' has affected several clubs in recent years, raising questions about the financial structures and competitive balance within the English Football League (EFL).

In the first two decades of the Premier League, only one club, Swindon Town, experienced a consecutive drop, and that was under specific circumstances related to league restructuring. Wolverhampton Wanderers are considered the first team to suffer a true double drop in the 2011-12 season. Since then, the situation has become more frequent, with four such instances in the 14 seasons following Wolves' relegation, and three in nine seasons if Sunderland's decline between 2016 and 2018 is included.

Recent seasons have seen Luton Town and Leicester City both relegated to League One. Burnley is facing the possibility of a similar fate this season, which would mark a treble drop for the club, who were relegated to the Championship in 2023-24 and then to League One in 2024-25.

Analysis suggests that mismanagement, both on and off the pitch, often contributes to these rapid declines. Wolves, for example, went through four managers and made several unsuccessful transfer decisions during their double drop. Sunderland's period in the third tier was marked by poor performance, finishing bottom of both the Championship and League One. Leicester City's relegation was directly linked to boardroom decisions and a six-point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability regulations, which ultimately sealed their fate in the Championship.

While some experts believe the trend of consecutive relegations may not continue, citing mismanagement as the primary driver for Luton and Leicester, others point to systemic issues. The significant financial advantage enjoyed by clubs receiving parachute payments from the Premier League distorts competition in the Championship, making it considerably easier for relegated top-flight teams to gain promotion back. According to the Independent Football Regulator (IFR), clubs receiving parachute payments are more than four times as likely to be promoted.

The IFR's 'State of the Game' report has recommended a reform of the financial distribution model, suggesting a shift from parachute payments to merit-based prize money for all EFL clubs. This change aims to reduce the financial disparity between clubs in the Championship and create a more competitive league. However, even with reduced parachute payments, the financial advantage for relegated Premier League clubs is expected to remain substantial.

Burnley's current situation highlights the financial realities. Despite their significantly higher revenue compared to clubs like Lincoln City, poor on-field performance has led to struggles. The club has also faced criticism for its financial management, with substantial loans recorded following a leveraged buyout. Burnley has set a new English league record for the longest run without a home win, a stark indicator of their current difficulties.