A supercomputer simulation has identified the Los Angeles Rams as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2026 Super Bowl, which is set to be held at their home stadium, SoFi Stadium, on February 14. The simulation also forecasts a challenging year for the Kansas City Chiefs, predicting they will miss the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
The Rams, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford and coached by Sean McVay, were defeated in the NFC Championship game last season. However, significant offseason acquisitions, including defensive end Myles Garrett and defensive backs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, have positioned them as strong contenders. Opta's supercomputer gives the Rams a 19.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl and a 29.9% chance of reaching the game. Their closest NFC rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks, have significantly lower probabilities, at 6.3% and 5.3% respectively.
In the AFC, the outlook is less clear. The New England Patriots, under coach Mike Vrabel, are projected to have a 16.5% chance of reaching the Super Bowl, though their odds of winning it are set at 7.5%. The Houston Texans are considered the second-favorite team in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl, with a 14.3% chance, attributed to their strong defense. The Jacksonville Jaguars also show promise, with a 12.6% chance of making it to the championship game in their second year with head coach Liam Coen.
Teams expected to contend for playoff spots in the AFC include the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Buffalo Bills. Conversely, the supercomputer's projection indicates that the Kansas City Chiefs may miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. This forecast comes as speculation continues about the future of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce's potential final NFL season.
Other teams anticipated to make the playoffs include the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, and Carolina Panthers. The Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to be on the periphery of playoff contention.
