Paul Skenes' Velocity Decline Raises Concerns Amidst Rough Patch for Pirates Ace

Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes is facing increased scrutiny as a notable decline in his fastball velocity and a rise in his earned run average have coincided with a challenging stretch of starts. Fans and analysts are expressing concern over the ace's recent performance, particularly as the calendar turned to August.

Skenes surrendered five runs on seven hits in his latest outing against the Cincinnati Reds, marking the second consecutive start where he allowed a similar number of runs. This performance capped a difficult month for the 24-year-old, during which he allowed at least five runs in three of his five starts. His earned run average has climbed to 3.90, a significant increase from his previous season totals.

While Skenes did experience a successful three-start stretch in mid-July where he went undefeated and allowed only five earned runs combined, the recent performances have overshadowed that period. The most alarming statistic that emerged is his reduced fastball velocity. In his last four starts, Skenes has not exceeded 98 miles per hour, a stark contrast to his previous seasons where he frequently topped this mark. Data indicates he has achieved speeds above 98 mph only 95 times this season, compared to nearly 900 times last year and close to 700 times the year before.

Skenes himself acknowledged a deliberate adjustment to his velocity in a statement last month, suggesting it was "by design" and not a cause for personal worry. However, the statistical trend remains a point of concern for observers.

Further data highlights the increase in runs allowed. Skenes gave up just 41 earned runs over the entirety of last year. Through 23 starts in 2026, he has already allowed 54 earned runs. His latest start also saw him last only four innings.

Dan Zangrilli, a host for Pirates pre- and post-game coverage, offered a critical assessment of Skenes' recent performance, stating, "The ace didn't ace. Far more questions than answers. For any of this to work, he has to. He looks like an out of shape, lumbering yeti sucking wind on a hot day."