Lionel Messi stands as a significant favorite to secure the Golden Ball, awarded to the Player of the Tournament, at the 2026 World Cup, according to betting markets on Kalshi. With over $5.5 million in volume, Messi is currently favored at 91 percent to win the award.
This projection suggests a strong likelihood of Messi claiming the honor, even if Argentina were to lose the World Cup Final to Spain. Spain's captain, Rodri, is listed as the second favorite with a seven percent chance.
Messi's performance in the tournament, including a tie with Kylian Mbappe for the most goals with eight after the semifinals and four assists, positions him to potentially become the first player to win the Golden Ball in consecutive World Cups. He previously won the award at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil and again at Qatar 2022, making him the first player to earn the honor multiple times.
For those looking for alternative betting opportunities, Kalshi also offers markets for the Silver Ball, awarded to the tournament's second-best player. A win for Spain in the final, for which they are priced at -152 odds, would make Rodri a strong candidate for the Silver Ball. As of Friday, Rodri held a 29 percent chance to win the Silver Ball.
Rodri has been a crucial player for Spain, which has allowed only one goal throughout the tournament leading up to the final. His role as a central midfielder has been vital in breaking up opposition attacks and controlling the game's tempo, contributing significantly to his team's defensive strength.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup matches are being broadcast on FOX and FOX Sports 1. Tickets for World Cup 2026 events are available through SeatGeek.