Leeds United will host Newcastle United on Monday afternoon at Elland Road, with both clubs looking to maintain their unbeaten starts to the Premier League season. Leeds is listed as a slight favorite at +135 on the three-way moneyline, while Newcastle is at +195, and a draw is +255. Both teams have secured one win and two draws through their first three matches.
Leeds United, managed by Daniel Farke, has faced a challenging early schedule. The team defeated Nottingham Forest away and has since drawn with Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion, conceding only two goals overall. Their defensive performance against Brighton, a team that has scored 13 goals in four matches, was particularly noted. Despite facing strong attacks, Leeds is conceding an average of 1.4 expected goals per game.
Newcastle United has also started the season without a loss, though their performances have been less convincing according to analysis. While they have found attacking opportunities easier to come by, they are conceding a higher number of scoring chances. FootyStats data indicates Newcastle is allowing the most expected goals per contest in the Premier League early in the season. The Magpies experienced significant squad changes during the offseason, including the departure of manager Eddie Howe, making their undefeated start an achievement for Matthias Jaissle's side.
However, the analysis suggests Newcastle's current standing may be due to favorable circumstances rather than consistent performance, and a well-organized Leeds United side could exploit these vulnerabilities at home. The recommended bet is on Leeds to win on the moneyline.