Harry Kane is in contention for the Ballon d'Or, but history suggests the odds are stacked against him. Traditionally, winners of football's most prestigious individual award have recently lifted one of the sport's major trophies. Kane, who enjoyed one of the most prolific goal-scoring seasons in modern times, faces a familiar dilemma as voters weigh his individual achievements against major tournament success.
Rodri is considered a strong rival, having been a standout performer in Spain's World Cup triumph and collecting the tournament's Golden Ball. Lamine Yamal also earned a World Cup winner's medal and helped Barcelona secure the La Liga title, though his teammate Pau Cubarsi received the Fifa Young Player Award.
Kylian Mbappe is also expected to be a prominent contender. He finished as the World Cup's top scorer with 10 goals, also claiming the Champions League Golden Boot and La Liga's top scorer trophy. Despite these individual accolades, his team fell short in the World Cup, and Real Madrid did not win a major honor that season.
Lionel Messi, captain of Argentina's second consecutive World Cup final appearance, scored eight goals during the tournament at age 39.
Should Kane prevail, he would join an elite group of Englishmen to have won the Ballon d'Or, including Stanley Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan, and Michael Owen. He would also be the first player representing a Bundesliga club to win the award since Matthias Sammer in 1996. The decision for voters will revolve around whether Kane's exceptional individual season outweighs the lack of major team trophies and if he can become a rare exception to the award's historical trend.