Aston Villa is set to welcome striker Nicolas Jackson, with reports indicating Ollie Watkins may be departing for Saudi club Al-Hilal. Jackson's numbers from his recent spell at Bayern Munich present a comparable profile to Watkins' output at Villa Park.
Last season, Jackson scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes for Bayern, averaging one goal involvement per 90 minutes. In contrast, Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes for Aston Villa, averaging 0.6 goal involvements per 90 minutes.
Jackson also generated more attacking opportunities, averaging 3.8 shots per 90 compared to Watkins' 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target versus Watkins' 1.2. His expected goals (xG) figure was higher at 0.7 per 90, compared to Watkins' 0.5. Jackson averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes, while Watkins averaged 5.6.
Jackson's strong non-penalty xG per 90 minutes of 0.55 since January 2020 places him among the top performers in the Premier League, trailing only Erling Haaland. This suggests an ability to consistently get into scoring positions.
However, Jackson's finishing has drawn scrutiny. During his two seasons with Chelsea, he scored 14 goals from an xG of 18.7 in the 2023-24 season and 10 goals from an xG of 12.3 the previous campaign. He has converted 18 of 61 big chances in England, while Watkins has converted 24 of 73 since joining Villa in 2020.
Last season, the conversion rates between the two strikers were statistically similar. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances, while Watkins converted 18.9% of his shots and 43.2% of his big chances.
It is important to note a significant caveat: Watkins started 43 matches and played considerably more minutes than Jackson, who only started 15 of his 34 appearances. This limited sample size for Jackson, often coming off the bench, may inflate his per-90-minute statistics compared to what might be seen over a full season of starts.