The Mountain West Conference is set for a dramatically altered landscape in 2026, with five teams departing and three new programs arriving. Amidst these changes, sportsbooks project Hawaii to emerge as the conference champion.
Boise State is among the notable departures, moving to the Pac-12. The Mountain West has bolstered its ranks by adding North Dakota State, UTEP, and Northern Illinois. These shifts have created a more unpredictable and open race for the conference title, moving away from the previous dynamic where Boise State was often the clear favorite.
Conference Favorites
UNLV and New Mexico are positioned as the early frontrunners for the 2026 season. Sportsbooks show a slight edge for UNLV, with others favoring New Mexico. The distinction between the two is described as negligible. UNLV enters the season with momentum under head coach Dan Mullen, who led the Rebels to 10 wins in his first year. Mullen has added former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold to the roster. Meanwhile, New Mexico is coming off a significant turnaround in 2025, achieving its first nine-win season since 2016 under coach Jackson Eck.
Outside Contenders and Long Shots
Beyond the top two, North Dakota State, Hawaii, and Air Force are considered significant contenders, with odds placing them ahead of the rest of the field. Teams like San Jose State, Wyoming, Nevada, Northern Illinois, and UTEP are considered long shots with less favorable odds.
Hawaii's Potential
Hawaii, under head coach Timmy Chang, is projected to be a strong contender, with quarterback Micah Alejado seen as a key factor. Alejado, a sophomore, threw for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman. Despite a potentially challenging schedule due to the team's geographical location, Hawaii will benefit from hosting key conference opponents, including UNLV, New Mexico, and North Dakota State. This favorable home schedule is viewed as a significant advantage in a conference where margins are expected to be thin. Mudah's betting prediction favors Hawaii to win the Mountain West at +480 odds, citing the team's steady development and the potential of quarterback Alejado.