Hart Trophy Predictions: Undervalued Stars for 2026-27 NHL MVP

Elite offensive production is a significant factor in winning the Hart Trophy, the NHL's award for the league's most valuable player. However, simply leading the league in points does not guarantee the honor. In the past decade, the top scorer has won MVP only five times. In other seasons, the winner made a compelling case by driving their team's success beyond expectations, akin to Taylor Hall's 2017-18 performance where his point production propelled the New Jersey Devils into the playoffs for the first time in five years.

While defensemen have rarely won the award, with Chris Pronger being the last in 1999-00, goaltenders have found more success, with Connor Hellebuyck earning the trophy two seasons ago. This historical context highlights that a player's impact on their team's overall performance is a crucial consideration for MVP voters.

2026-27 Hart Trophy Outlook

Jack Hughes (25/1 odds)

Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils is positioned as a key catalyst for his team's postseason aspirations. The Devils have been given 30/1 odds to win the Stanley Cup and are considered strong contenders for the Metropolitan Division title. Over the past three seasons, during which Hughes has missed at least 20 games due to injury each year, the Devils have failed to make the playoffs twice. Despite his injury proneness, Hughes presents an attractive upside if he can remain on the ice for a full season.

Following the Olympic break last season, Hughes recorded 45 points in 25 games, a scoring pace that trailed only Connor McDavid and projected to 134 points over a full season. During this stretch, the Devils played at a 95-point pace, demonstrating Hughes' ability to significantly elevate the team's performance. Even with missed games, Hughes ranked in the 98th percentile for forwards in mid-range shots and the 97th percentile in mid-range goals, while also being in the 88th percentile for high-danger shots. Although the Devils were outscored at 5-on-5 with Hughes on the ice, an exceptionally low save percentage of .883 during those minutes significantly contributed to this statistic.

Jason Robertson (60/1 odds)

The Dallas Stars are considered Stanley Cup contenders, and Jason Robertson's optimal performance is seen as essential for their success. Following a summer of contract negotiations, Robertson is playing on a one-year, $12 million deal with an opportunity to prove his value. Last season, he finished in the top 10 in league scoring with 96 points, 46 of which came at even strength, and ranked fourth overall in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). He also set career highs with 15 power-play goals and averaged 20:15 of ice time per game, finishing third in the NHL with 294 shots. If this increased shot volume and usage help him approach his career-high of 109 points set in the 2022-23 season, Robertson could make a strong case for the Hart Trophy.