Argentina enters the 2026 World Cup semifinal against England as a slight underdog, according to oddsmakers at BetMGM. La Albiceleste are listed at +105 to advance, while England sits at -135.
Despite the odds, some analysts point to Argentina's strong underlying metrics, including the best expected goals (xG) differential in the tournament. Argentina has generated 13.17 expected goals while allowing only 3.57.
Argentina's path to the semifinals was dramatic, featuring a comeback victory after being down 2-0 against Egypt. England also had a fortunate moment in their preceding match, where a goal against Norway was not disallowed despite a potential deflection off a camera line.
"Everyone needs some luck and breaks to get this far in the World Cup," noted one analysis of the tournament. "But these two cases feel particularly fortuitous."
The upcoming match is expected to be a tightly contested affair. One prediction suggests the first 90 minutes will end in a draw, with odds as high as +200. The analysis anticipates the game could extend into extra time, and potentially even penalty kicks.
Erich Richter, a sports betting analyst with a reported 30.15 percent return on investment since 2022, is a contributor to the betting preview. Richter's approach often involves betting on longer shots.
This semifinal clash raises questions about whether it might be the final World Cup appearance for Argentinian star Lionel Messi.