The release of the preseason Coaches Poll signals the imminent start of the college football season, prompting discussions about team rankings and potential biases. This year's poll, which relies on the judgment of coaches and their staffs, shows notable similarities and differences when compared to advanced analytics-driven ranking systems like ESPN's SP+.
The SP+ rankings, which evaluate teams based on offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency adjusted for opponent strength, along with returning production and recruiting rankings, offer a data-driven perspective. For the 2026 season, the top teams in the Coaches Poll align closely with SP+ projections. Ohio State and Oregon are ranked as the top two teams in both polls. Georgia is third in the Coaches Poll and fourth in SP+, while Texas and Notre Dame follow in the poll, with Notre Dame third and Texas sixth in SP+.
Shifts in Coaching and Team Dynamics
The college football landscape has seen significant turnover among coaches at top programs heading into the 2026 season. Jon Sumrall takes over the Florida Gators, Lane Kiffin moved from Ole Miss to LSU, and Pete Golding now leads the Rebels. Auburn hired Alex Golesh, and Penn State replaced James Franklin with Matt Campbell. Kyle Whittingham departed Utah for Michigan, with Morgan Scalley stepping in at Utah, and Bob Chesney is the new head coach at UCLA.
These coaching changes, coupled with the influence of the transfer portal and Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, make year-to-year roster strength more difficult to assess. The preseason Coaches Poll, however, appears to have largely reflected the expected strength of top-tier teams.
Divergent Rankings for Prominent Programs
While the top of the polls show consistency, divergences emerge further down the rankings, suggesting potential human bias in the voting process. Oklahoma and Ole Miss, both playoff teams in 2025, are ranked ninth and 10th in the Coaches Poll, respectively, but fall to 12th and 16th in SP+. This indicates that analytics systems were less impressed with these teams than human voters were.
Both teams compete in the SEC, a conference often associated with preseason polls ranking teams higher than their underlying metrics might suggest. For instance, Florida and LSU were ranked 15th and ninth, respectively, in the 2025 preseason AP Poll but finished with losing records. The notes also suggest that some SEC teams may be undervalued, including LSU, which is ranked 13th in the Coaches Poll but 10th in SP+. The SP+ metric anticipates strong performance from LSU's transfer portal additions, particularly at quarterback under new head coach Lane Kiffin. Tennessee, ranked 18th in the poll, is 15th in SP+, indicating they might be underrated despite past struggles in crucial games.
Texas Tech and Houston: A Tale of Two Rankings
A notable example of a team potentially undervalued by the Coaches Poll is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are ranked seventh in SP+ due to their effective use of NIL and the transfer portal, which led to a strong 2025 season. They are projected to have a top-10 offense and a top-11 defense. However, they sit only 12th in the Coaches Poll. The upcoming Week 3 matchup between Houston and Texas Tech could highlight this disparity, as Houston is ranked 24th in the Coaches Poll but a much lower 36th in SP+.
Despite these discrepancies, the overall assessment suggests the Coaches Poll is a reasonable, if imperfect, reflection of preseason expectations. The variability inherent in college football, as demonstrated by Indiana's 2025 championship run from a No. 19 preseason ranking, underscores the unpredictable nature of the sport.