Ben Shelton, the No. 2 seed at the ATP Washington tournament, is set to face Ugo Humbert in a highly anticipated match. Betting odds list Shelton as a -190 favorite to advance to the quarterfinals.
Shelton, 23, has shown a propensity for peaking at key moments, reaching multiple Grand Slam semifinals and quarterfinals, and securing a Masters title at the 2025 Canadian Open. With the U.S. Open approaching, Shelton may be finding his stride after a less active summer.
The match is expected to be a close contest, with both players possessing similar attributes. Shelton and Humbert are tall, powerful servers who rely on their first serves to gain an advantage and keep opponents on the defensive. Shelton ranks 15th on the ATP Tour in first-serve points won percentage at 76.9% and is eighth in aces this season. Humbert is not far behind, sitting 19th in first-serve points won percentage at 76.1% and 14th in aces.
While both players excel on serve, Shelton demonstrates a stronger performance on his second serve, leading the ATP Tour with a 59.3% success rate. However, Humbert has a slight edge in returning game.
According to Tennis Abstract's ELO Model, Shelton is ranked 12th overall, with Humbert at 30th. The analysis suggests the margins between the players are thin, particularly given their shared reliance on strong first serves.
Given the anticipated tightness of the match, one betting prediction suggests an Over 26.5 games at +132. Another potential play is backing Shelton to achieve at least 13 aces, offered at +230, anticipating a lengthy, tie-breaker-filled encounter where his powerful serve could be a significant factor.