The Atlanta Falcons enter the 2026 NFL season with a new head coach, Kevin Stefanski, but face considerable challenges due to minimal offseason roster improvements. The team, which missed the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season in 2025-26, finished with an 8-9 record and fell short of their win total for the third straight year.
Stefanski, a two-time NFL Coach of the Year, takes over from Raheem Morris. Despite his coaching pedigree, the Falcons ranked 24th in free-agent spending, indicating a slow approach to rebuilding the squad. The team's schedule is also projected to be more difficult this season, ranking 20th in ease of schedule compared to the fourth-easiest in the previous year.
Offensive Outlook
The Falcons boast legitimate offensive talent, including running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts. London recently signed a $141 million deal, making him one of the NFL's highest-paid receivers. The offensive line is considered above average, ranked 13th by ESPN's Mike Clay. However, the quarterback position remains a significant question mark.
The team is relying on third-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is considered injury-prone and is recovering from a season-ending injury. As an insurance policy, the Falcons added Tua Tagovailoa, who also has a history of injuries. Both quarterbacks were ranked among the bottom 10 in Pro Football Focus's quarterback rankings last season, with Penix at 35th and Tagovailoa at 32nd out of 38. It is anticipated that Tagovailoa may win the starting job under Stefanski, who has no prior allegiance to Penix.
Defensive Concerns
Atlanta's defense was its strongest unit last season, but it is expected to face regression. The team lost its leading tackler, linebacker Kaden Ellis, to the New Orleans Saints in free agency. Additionally, their leading pass rusher, James Pearce Jr., is currently under investigation for battery and stalking, potentially leading to a suspension at the start of the season.
Despite retaining defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, the defense may struggle to replicate its previous performance, especially with a tougher schedule. The offense will likely need to shoulder more responsibility to compensate for potential defensive shortcomings.
Schedule and Betting Outlook
The Falcons' schedule offers few easy wins. Even if they win all three of their home division games, which is considered an optimistic projection given expected improvements from other NFC South teams, they are only projected for one additional victory on the road against the Cleveland Browns in Week 14. This game carries a revenge narrative for Stefanski, who previously coached the Browns.
Considering these factors, the betting consensus favors the Falcons to underperform. A strong betting recommendation is for the Falcons to finish with under 5.5 wins, offered at +180 odds on DraftKings. Finishing last in the NFC South at +160 is also an option, though projections for the Saints remain uncertain.