Arsenal has emerged as the top favorite to win the upcoming Champions League season, according to Opta's supercomputer analysis. The simulations, which ran 10,000 scenarios, project the Gunners with a 20.9% chance of securing the European title for the first time. This projection comes as the tournament's league phase is set to begin.
Two-time defending champions Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) are ranked as fifth favorites, with a 7.1% chance of winning a third consecutive crown. This follows a challenging start to their domestic season, including losses and draws in Ligue 1. PSG's recent performance saw them lose to Monaco over the weekend, marking their worst start in 19 years. They are projected behind Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and Barcelona.
Supercomputer Projections
Arsenal's projected success is based on their performance last season, where they were runners-up. The supercomputer gives them a 50% chance of reaching the semi-finals and a 34.8% chance of making the final. Bayern Munich is listed as the second favorite with a 19.4% chance of winning their first title since 2020. Manchester City follows with a 12.3% probability in their first season under new manager Enzo Maresca. Barcelona is fourth at 8.2%, with their last final appearance in 2015.
Further down the list, Liverpool is ranked sixth with a 6.1% chance, followed by record champions Real Madrid at 4.4%. Manchester United, making their return to the competition, are given an outside chance of 3.8%. The top ten also includes Inter Milan, the 2025 runners-up, and Aston Villa, winners of the Europa League.
The analysis was conducted ahead of the league phase of the Champions League, which is scheduled to commence on Tuesday. PSG's last title win came in May, where they defeated Arsenal in a penalty shootout following a 1-1 draw in the final.