As the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup nears its conclusion, Lionel Messi's Argentina holds a slight edge as the favorite to win the tournament, according to analyst Nick Wright. France, led by Kylian Mbappé, is also considered a top contender.

Wright, speaking on "First Things First," has assigned percentage probabilities to teams advancing to the knockout stage, with Argentina leading at 16% and France close behind at 15%. Both teams are noted for their strong performances and talent.

Argentina has not conceded a goal in the tournament thus far, and Messi is described as appearing determined. France has also demonstrated impressive form, with Wright highlighting their significant talent pool as a key advantage.

Other Top Contenders

Brazil is positioned as the fourth-highest favorite at 10%. Despite winning their group convincingly, including multiple games by a three-goal margin, Wright suggests they have been "unfairly maligned." He points to their challenging group, strong defense, and favorable path through the knockout rounds as reasons for their high ranking.

Spain follows at 9%, with Wright noting they are "probably fine" despite potential challenges in their group play. England is ranked at 8%, though Wright expresses less confidence in their prospects, citing concerns about their potential matchups and a difficult road environment, particularly a potential Round of 16 game against Mexico in Mexico City.

Germany, at 7%, is in the same quadrant of the bracket as France, setting up a potential high-profile match in the Round of 16. Despite a loss in their final group game, Wright attributes it to having already clinched advancement.

Dark Horses and Underdogs

The United States is given a 6% chance, an increase attributed to Christian Pulisic's return to health and the team's lack of yellow card suspensions. Their path to the quarterfinals is also noted as potentially easier than some other top teams.

Portugal also has a 6% chance, but Wright is awaiting further performance confirmation, particularly in their upcoming match against Colombia, to assess their true potential.

Morocco and the Netherlands are both rated at 4%, with their chances somewhat hampered by difficult Round of 32 matchups against each other. Mexico, having secured six goals for and zero against in group play, also holds a 4% chance and benefits from remaining in host cities within Mexico until potentially the quarterfinals.

Norway, another team with a 4% chance, is noted for its performance against France but also for a perceived passive approach in playing for second place in their group. Japan, at 2%, has played well but faces a tough draw, including a potential match against Brazil in the Round of 32.

Colombia and Switzerland are both rated at 3%. Colombia's chances depend on their performance against Portugal and their group standing, while Switzerland, despite winning their group, faces a challenging path forward.

Belgium and a collection of other teams, including Ivory Coast, Senegal, Ghana, Croatia, Egypt, and Canada, are given less than a 1% chance of winning the tournament.