FOX Sports analyst Colin Cowherd has expressed skepticism about Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills' prospects of winning a Super Bowl, particularly in light of Patrick Mahomes' sustained success with the Kansas City Chiefs. Cowherd believes Allen is trending towards a career trajectory similar to Phil Mickelson, who often finished second to Tiger Woods during their respective primes.
"Phil Mickelson's prime was Tiger Woods' prime. Well, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes entered the league one year apart. Mahomes got the better owner, arguably, GM, coach and weapon, Travis Kelce," Cowherd said on "The Herd." "In an offensive league, the weapon matters. Offensive coach in Andy Reid, so a lot of advantages just didn't go Josh Allen's way."
Allen acknowledged the team's persistent efforts in an interview with ESPN, stating, "You knock enough at the door, it's going to open at some point, and that's what we have to keep doing." However, Cowherd remains unconvinced, questioning the inevitability of the Bills' success.
Despite another strong statistical season in 2025, where the four-time Pro Bowler and 2024 NFL MVP recorded 3,668 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a 102.2 passer rating, along with 579 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, the Bills have struggled in the postseason. Following their AFC wild-card win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Allen threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles in a divisional round overtime loss to the Denver Broncos. Over the first eight seasons of his career (2018-25), the Bills have not advanced beyond the AFC Championship Game and have a 0-4 record against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the playoffs. The Chiefs have won three Super Bowls with Mahomes as their quarterback during that span.
Furthermore, the Bills' streak of five consecutive AFC East titles (2020-24) was broken in 2025. The New England Patriots, under head coach Mike Vrabel and with quarterback Drake Maye as the runner-up for NFL MVP, won the division and reached the Super Bowl LX.
Cowherd pointed to the Patriots' current stability and talent as a significant obstacle for the Bills. "Are you going to be playing road playoff games? Ask Tom Brady about playing road playoff games at Denver: It never worked out well. A lot of those San Francisco 49ers playoff highlights with Joe Montana, they were at home. A lot of Brady's highlights, they were at home, so that's what worries me," Cowherd explained. "Not that the window's closed. Rather, New England now has the better coach, an elite quarterback, a great owner [Robert Kraft], lots of historic momentum and success. That and a lot more good, young players."
He also raised concerns about the financial implications of Allen's contract. "You can blame the GM, but some of it becomes the Patriots have Drake Maye on a rookie deal and the Bills are paying Josh Allen a lot, and you got to move off really good players." Allen, 30, is entering the second year of a six-year, $330 million contract, with an average annual value of $55 million, placing him among the league's highest-paid quarterbacks.
New England bolstered its receiving corps in the offseason, acquiring A.J. Brown from the Philadelphia Eagles and signing Romeo Doubs to a four-year, $68 million deal, though they did release their leading receiver from 2025, Stefon Diggs. The Bills, who have not won a Super Bowl in franchise history and lost four consecutive championship games from 1990-93, split their regular-season series with the Patriots in 2025.