Major League Baseball is experiencing a surge in home runs, with batters hitting the ball out of the park at a historically high rate despite a low number of balls in play per game. As the season progresses, the competition for the most home runs has narrowed to a two-player race, according to oddsmakers.
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber entered Wednesday with 33 home runs, tied with Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez for the league lead. Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman is close behind with 31, followed by Junior Caminero and Ben Rice.
Despite the close standings, Schwarber is the odds-on favorite at bet365 sportsbook with -125 odds to finish the season as the MLB home run leader. Schwarber has led the National League in home runs twice since joining the Phillies in 2022, hitting 46 that year and 56 in the previous season, narrowly edging out Shohei Ohtani. However, he has yet to lead all of MLB, as his best seasons coincided with American League players like Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh hitting 60 homers.
Alvarez, however, is emerging as a strong contender and is currently favored by oddsmakers at +160. Baseball Savant data indicates that Alvarez leads the league in "no-doubter" home runs (those that would be out in every ballpark) with 21, and in expected home runs with 37.3. Schwarber follows in expected home runs with 28.9.
Alvarez's overall hitting statistics this season are exceptional. In addition to being tied for the MLB lead in home runs, he boasts the league's best OPS at 1.082 and leads the American League in hits (120), RBIs (75), and batting average (.326). He demonstrates proficiency against all pitch types, slugging .673 on fastballs, .723 on breaking balls, and .538 on off-speed pitches, according to Baseball Savant.
While Schwarber has been a consistent power threat, Alvarez's current performance and advanced metrics suggest he has a strong chance to secure the league's home run title. The difference between the top contenders is narrow, with considerable playing time remaining in the season.