UK Scientists Model Catastrophic Yellowstone Supervolcano Eruption

UK scientists have developed a dire, step-by-step model detailing the potential consequences of a supereruption at Yellowstone National Park, warning that such an event could pose an existential threat to civilization.

The study, published in The Conversation, describes a scenario where a supervolcano ejects over 230 cubic miles of magma, rock, and ash, an event that has occurred at Yellowstone three times in the last 2.1 million years. The most recent of these cataclysmic eruptions took place 631,000 years ago, blanketing North America in ash and causing global effects.

Timeline of a Cataclysm

The researchers, led by Ilan Kelman of University College London and Matthew Blackett of Coventry University, outlined a potential timeline based on worst-case scenarios:

• One Month Prior: Seismologists observe a surge in earthquakes, leading to an increase in the alert level from 'normal' to 'advisory'.

• Three Weeks Prior: Tremors become shallower, and geyser activity grows increasingly erratic.

• One Week Prior: Experts announce an 85-92% probability of an eruption within three weeks, and the volcano alert is raised to 'watch'. An evacuation zone of 62 miles around Yellowstone is designated, impacting approximately 200,000 residents.

• Eruption Day: Magma enters Yellowstone's hydrothermal system, sending steam, mud, and rock fragments miles into the atmosphere. Hours later, a vast eruption column reaches up to 31 miles high. Fast-moving flows of gas, ash, and rock spread for miles, causing immediate fatalities, destroying farmland, and disrupting power and water infrastructure.

• Three Days to One Week Post-Eruption: Much of North America is plunged into darkness by ashfall, with cities like Billings, Montana, buried under several feet of ash. Supply chains, sewage systems, heating, and mobile phone networks begin to fail.

• Two Weeks Post-Eruption: Ashfall obstructs roads and drainage systems, leading to the closure of airports, railways, and farms. The US, Canada, Mexico, and most Central American and Caribbean countries declare states of emergency.

• Four to Six Months Post-Eruption: Respiratory illnesses strain hospitals globally, while the collapse of North American agriculture causes worldwide food prices to skyrocket. Combined with a banking crisis, this triggers a global recession.

• Ten Years Post-Eruption: Humanity faces widespread starvation and migration, with a shift towards a more agrarian lifestyle and reliance on hunting for meat.

The scientists estimate that between 0.7 to 1.3 billion people could die prematurely due to the eruption and its cascading effects.

Likelihood and Uncertainty

Despite the alarming projections, the study emphasizes that a Yellowstone supereruption is not imminent. Based on historical data, there is an average of approximately 725,000 years between such events, suggesting an eruption is technically tens of thousands of years away. However, scientists caution that volcanic activity does not follow predictable schedules, and previous eruptions have varied significantly in timing. Furthermore, if an eruption were to occur, it might not necessarily be a supereruption, citing a lava flow event 70,000 years ago as a more recent, less catastrophic volcanic activity at Yellowstone.