World on Track for Disastrous 2.8°C Global Warming by 2100, UN Report Warns

The world is now projected to experience 2.8°C of global warming by the end of the century, a level widely considered disastrous, according to a new United Nations report. The chance of limiting global warming to the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement has passed, the report titled 'Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return' reveals.

Current government policies place the planet on a trajectory for warming that is significantly higher than the international target. The UN warns that this path could lead to severe and irreversible impacts.

"We've spent decades postponing cuts to emissions and now we're facing the consequences," said Anne Olhoff, Director of the UNEP–Copenhagen Climate Centre. She emphasized that while achieving the Paris Agreement goals is still possible, it requires surpassing current ambitious targets. "The longer we wait, the larger the risk that we jeopardize the temperature goal."

The Paris Agreement, established in 2015, aimed to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to pursue a limit of 1.5°C. However, the latest UN assessment indicates that this more ambitious goal is now out of reach under existing national commitments.

Scenarios for Future Warming

In the most optimistic scenario presented, humanity could limit peak warming to 1.7–1.8°C around the middle of the century, with subsequent efforts to bring temperatures back down to or below 1.5°C. However, achieving this outcome would necessitate drastic emissions reductions: an 18% cut by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040. This scenario also depends on the removal of approximately 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the century's end.

The report cautions that relying heavily on carbon dioxide removal technologies is fraught with uncertainty, involving expensive and unproven methods. It stresses that such removals should complement, not substitute, immediate and substantial emissions reductions.

If current policies remain unchanged, global temperatures are expected to rise by a significant 2.8°C by 2100. The report also notes a 10% probability that warming could exceed 3.4°C.

Calls for Urgent Action

Experts are urging governments worldwide to take immediate and decisive action to cut emissions. Ruth Fuller, WWF's Chief Climate Advisor, stated that the report underscores the escalating dangers of climate change. "Overshoot of 1.5 needs to be as short and as small as possible," she said, warning of accelerating tipping points in natural systems with devastating consequences for people and nature.

Fuller called for decisive action at the upcoming COP 31, including phasing out fossil fuels, investing in climate finance, scaling up renewable energy, accelerating adaptation measures, restoring ecosystems, and ending deforestation.

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, highlighted that every fraction of a degree of warming above 1.5°C and every year of overshoot guarantees more severe climate impacts. He cited research indicating that a 0.1°C increase in warming exposes an additional 140 million people to dangerous heat and puts the Greenland ice sheet at risk of irreversible collapse.

"Do the governments and fossil fuel producers of the world really want seven metres of sea level rise and the demise of many entire island countries as their legacy?" Hare questioned, emphasizing the profound risks associated with inaction.