The area affected by wildfires in Europe could nearly triple by 2100, according to a study that warns hotter and drier climate conditions will intensify fire risks across the continent. Researchers predict that under a high-emissions scenario, the area ravaged by wildfires could increase by 193 percent, reaching approximately 20,463 square miles (53,000 square km) annually.
This projected increase would impact large swathes of Western and Central Europe, as well as the Mediterranean region, which has already experienced a record-breaking fire season. The study suggests that human-caused climate change will lead to fires igniting in areas previously unaffected by large blazes. "With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size," said Dr. Kirsten Thonicke of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a co-author of the study.
The research utilized computer modeling to simulate how climate and weather changes influence vegetation, humidity, wind speed, and lightning strikes. These factors, combined with projections of land-use changes and population density shifts, contribute to the assessment of future wildfire-affected areas. The models indicate that if global emissions are not reduced, Europe will see substantial increases in burned areas, largely due to longer and more severe summer droughts leading to extreme fire weather.
Even in a low-emissions scenario, where global warming is limited to 1.8°C (3.2°F) above pre-industrial levels, the study predicts a 39 percent increase in land burned annually by the century's end. This is attributed to the slow reaction of the climate system, where accumulated greenhouse gases continue to affect temperatures for a prolonged period, a phenomenon known as 'warming in the pipeline.'
Current Fire Activity
Europe is currently experiencing one of its most severe fire seasons on record. Across the European Union, approximately 2,340 square miles (6,060 square km) of land have already been burned, more than two and a half times the 20-year average for this time of year. Countries such as Greece, France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, and Croatia have reported significant wildfires, leading to thousands of evacuations. Belgium, in particular, is confronting its worst modern wildfire in the Hautes Fagnes region, destroying over 3,000 hectares of land. The United Kingdom has also recorded its worst fire season to date, with firefighters responding to over 1,132 blazes.
Mitigation and Management
Despite the grim projections, the researchers noted that enhanced fire management strategies could significantly reduce potential damage. Improvements in fire management could decrease the burned area by 92 percent in a 1.8°C warming scenario and by 72 percent at 3.6°C warming. "If Europe increases investment in wildfire management, our projections show that this can make a significant difference," stated Professor Thomas Hickler of the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, a co-author. However, he cautioned that in extreme fire scenarios, the capacity to contain fires might be overwhelmed, and the threshold for such an event remains uncertain.