The area ravaged by wildfires across Europe is projected to nearly triple by 2100, according to a new study that links the increase to a hotter, drier climate. Researchers warn that without significant steps to curb pollution, the land affected by fires could reach 20,463 square miles annually.
This projected increase would impact large parts of western and Central Europe, as well as the Mediterranean region, which has already experienced a record-breaking fire season. The study, utilizing computer modeling, predicts that human-caused climate change will also lead to fires igniting in areas of Europe previously unaffected by large blazes.
"With climate change, conditions could become so extreme that we really hit limits to what we can do to prevent and fight fires once they get to a certain size," said co-author Dr. Kirsten Thonicke of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. She noted that the current fires in France, Spain, and Greece illustrate how rapidly hot, dry, and windy conditions can strain firefighting resources.
Greenhouse gas emissions are contributing to rising global temperatures, making prolonged periods of hot, dry weather more frequent and severe. Professor Thomas Hickler of the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research stated that nearly all the increase in wildfires over the past few decades can be attributed to human actions, and future increases will be directly linked to greenhouse gas emissions.
The computer models used in the research simulate how climate and weather changes influence vegetation, humidity, wind speed, and even lightning strikes. These factors, combined with predictions of land-use changes such as deforestation and shifts in population density, help estimate the area affected by fires. The simulations predict substantial increases in burned areas across Europe, primarily due to an increase in "extreme fire weather" driven by longer and deeper summer droughts.
Even in a "low emissions scenario" where global warming is limited to 1.8°C (3.2°F), the study forecasts a 39 percent increase in burned land per year by the end of the century. Professor Hickler explained this is partly due to the slow reaction of the climate system and positive feedback loops, such as permafrost melt releasing CO2. "Sensible emissions-cutting policies can help Europe avoid the worst of the wildfire increases, but a growing threat is now inevitable," he stated.
This projection comes as Europe faces one of its most severe fire seasons on record. Across the EU, 2,340 square miles of land have already burned this year, more than two and a half times the 20-year average. Greece, France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, and Croatia have all reported significant wildfires displacing thousands. Belgium is currently experiencing its worst modern wildfire in the Hautes Fagnes region, destroying over 3,000 hectares, while hundreds were evacuated from a resort in northern Greece and a village in southwest France.
The United Kingdom has also recorded its worst fire season, with firefighters responding to over 1,132 blazes, surpassing last year's total with four months remaining in the year. IMAGE3: The UK has now seen its worst fire season on record, with firefighters responding to over 1,132 blazes across the UK. Pictured: A fire rages above Ferndale, Wales
Despite the grim outlook, the researchers found that improved fire management could significantly reduce potential damage. Enhanced fire management strategies have the potential to decrease burned areas by 92 percent in a 1.8°C future and 72 percent at 3.6°C. However, the study cautions that in the worst-case scenario, extreme fires might exceed the capacity of containment measures.
"If Europe increases investment in wildfire management, our projections show that this can make a significant difference," Professor Hickler added. "But if fires become really extreme, our ability to contain them might break down, and we do not know yet where this point is."