A planned reduction in the scope of the U.S. Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), a key component of global ocean monitoring, is expected to significantly impair the accuracy of weather predictions and El Niño forecasts, according to warnings from European and American scientists. The OOI, managed by the U.S. National Science Foundation, is a vast network of seafloor systems, underwater gliders, and moored surface platforms that provide crucial data for researchers, policymakers, educators, and mariners worldwide.
Dismantling parts of this system would remove a major contributor to the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), a UN-coordinated framework for ocean data. Research published in Nature Climate Change indicates that losing U.S. observations would be more detrimental than randomly losing 80 percent of global ocean data, as U.S.-funded platforms fill critical gaps in every ocean basin. Scientists describe these observations as the "eyes and ears" of the ocean, essential for saving lives through early warning systems for storms and other extreme weather events.
Sabrina Speich, an expert in global ocean monitoring at the Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris, stated that ocean heat content, which the OOI helps measure, is a primary indicator of climate change. She warned that losing this data would hinder the tracking of ocean warming and the broader climate system, leading to degraded forecasts that could be "dangerously so." This degradation could have significant economic repercussions for the United States, affecting agriculture, insurance, and disaster response.
In a year predicted to experience a "supercharged" El Niño, the ability to accurately forecast its onset and intensity is critical. Farmers in the U.S. and South America rely on these predictions for agricultural planning, determining planting and harvesting schedules based on expected drought or flood conditions. The most recent El Niño event, in 2023-2024, was among the five strongest on record and contributed to record-breaking global temperatures in 2024.
According to the research, removing only the U.S. observations would increase the error rate in annual ocean heating rate estimates by 163 percent. The OOI system, which costs approximately $368 million, is being described by some as "penny-wise, pound foolish" given the immense costs of climate-related disasters. Between 1980 and 2024, the U.S. experienced over 400 climate and weather disasters with damages exceeding $1 billion, totaling $177 billion in 2024 alone. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also noted that its "billion-dollar climate and weather product" will no longer be updated due to shifting priorities.
John P. Abraham, a professor of engineering and co-author of the research, stated that the move to reduce the OOI is not about saving money but about "killing climate science research." Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead at the Copernicus Climate Change Service, emphasized the irreplaceable nature of in-situ ocean observations, as the deep ocean cannot be observed from space. She stressed the need for international cooperation to mitigate risks in a changing climate, adding, "Without ocean observations we are flying blind."
While the National Science Foundation stated that the OOI program is not being entirely canceled but rather undergoing a "descope" or reduction of elements, the full extent of the impact on data collection capabilities remains unclear.