UN Warns World on Track for 'Disastrous' 2.8°C Warming by 2100
The 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal is likely out of reach as current policies set the stage for severe climate impacts.
The world is on a trajectory to warm by 2.8°C by the end of the century, a level the United Nations describes as 'disastrous,' according to a new report.
The 'Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return' from the UN indicates that the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, established by the Paris Agreement, is likely no longer attainable under current government policies.
"We've spent decades postponing cuts to emissions and now we're facing the consequences," said Anne Olhoff, Director of the UNEP–Copenhagen Climate Centre. "The longer we wait, the larger the risk that we jeopardize the temperature goal."
The report outlines that if current policies continue, there is also a 10 percent chance that warming could exceed 3.4°C.
While the report suggests a best-case scenario where peak warming is limited to 1.7–1.8°C before temperatures are brought back down to 1.5°C, achieving this requires drastic and immediate action. This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 18 percent by 2030, 45 percent by 2035, and 69 percent by 2040. It also necessitates the removal of approximately 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the end of the century.
However, the UN cautions that carbon dioxide removal technologies face significant socioeconomic and technological uncertainties and should not be seen as a substitute for emissions reductions.
Experts are urging global governments to take urgent steps to cut emissions. Ruth Fuller, WWF's Chief Climate Advisor, stated that the report confirms humanity is entering "ever more dangerous territory." She called for decisive action at the upcoming COP 31, including phasing out fossil fuels, investing in climate finance, scaling up renewables, accelerating adaptation, restoring ecosystems, and ending deforestation.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, emphasized that every fraction of a degree over 1.5°C guarantees more severe climate impacts. He highlighted research indicating that each 0.1°C increase in warming exposes an additional 140 million people to dangerous heat and puts critical natural systems like the Greenland ice sheet at risk of irreversible collapse. Hare questioned whether governments and fossil fuel producers are prepared to accept the legacy of seven meters of sea level rise and the potential demise of island nations.