The world has entered a "danger zone of extreme weather" as the impacts of a potentially record-breaking El Niño begin to manifest globally, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released data indicating that the current El Niño event could be the strongest observed in more than 70 years and may persist until at least February 2027.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that alters weather patterns worldwide, leading to drought in some regions and intensifying storms and flooding in others. Forecasters also predict that El Niño will contribute to rising global temperatures, exacerbating the effects of human-induced climate change.
"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," Guterres stated. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."
Governments and scientists are implementing measures to mitigate risks of death, displacement, and environmental damage. Early warning systems have been enhanced, and pre-emptive medical assistance is being deployed. However, the extreme strength of this particular El Niño event has raised significant concerns, particularly for vulnerable populations.
The WMO has initiated a "major mobilization" to disseminate its forecasts of potential extreme weather events linked to El Niño to communities worldwide. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo cautioned that El Niño "has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world."
El Niño develops in the Pacific Ocean due to changes in wind patterns, allowing warm water to spread eastward and release heat into the atmosphere. Recent months have seen a sharp rise in sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, a clear indicator of a strengthening El Niño.
Surface temperatures in the Pacific's key monitoring region have exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above average, positioning this event to be declared "very strong." Forecasts suggest that monthly sea surface temperatures could approach 4 degrees Celsius above average, potentially making it the strongest El Niño recorded since at least 1950 by a significant margin.
The phenomenon typically leads to drier conditions in many equatorial regions, including parts of South America, central Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia, while generally bringing wetter weather to the southern United States, according to typical El Niño impact patterns. Conversely, areas like the Pacific Northwest of the United States may experience warmer and drier conditions.
The WMO's forecasts highlight the potential for significant disruption to global economies as nations prepare for the widespread impacts of this intensified weather event.