UN Report: World Losing Ground on Climate Change, US Cited for Emissions Increase

Humanity is losing ground in the fight against climate change, with projections indicating a hotter world than previously anticipated, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report. The update suggests that even if all nations fulfill their emission reduction pledges, the Earth is likely to warm by an additional 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above current temperatures.

This outcome is described as worse than last year's projections, partly due to the United States' formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised historical emissions data. The report specifically faults the U.S. for increased emissions in the past year, noting that while other major economies reduced their carbon pollution or slowed its growth, the U.S. saw a significant rise.

The report states that the increase in the United States' emissions, measured at 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent, far exceeded that of any other country. This surge was attributed to heightened electricity demand and a rebound in coal power generation. Of the 124 countries that increased emissions, the U.S. accounted for 70% of the total carbon dioxide increase in 2025, amounting to 189 million tons.

Climate scientist Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, commented that the U.S. appears to be actively promoting coal while hindering renewables and discouraging international climate action. Outside scientists, including Hare, have deemed the UN report to be scientifically sound.

According to the new calculations, if countries meet their submitted climate plans, the globe will be 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than pre-industrial times by 2100. If current trends continue without national commitments, the warming is projected to reach 2.8 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit), consistent with last year's projection.

Both of these temperature scenarios exceed the Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). Current global temperatures are already about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. UN officials have acknowledged that limiting warming to the 1.5-degree goal is no longer feasible and are now focusing on limiting warming to approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius (3.2 degrees Fahrenheit) with the hope of later removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that the world is falling "dangerously short" of even these revised goals but emphasized that the tools to change course are available. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen stressed that drastically cutting global carbon emissions by 18% by 2030 and 69% by 2040 is the only way to return to a manageable climate reality.

Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a UN scientific assessment on climate impacts, echoed this sentiment, stating that the necessary actions and tools are known, and delaying will only increase the danger and cost.

Anne Olhoff, lead author of the report and director of the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre, indicated that the U.S. policy shift is expected to contribute approximately one-tenth of a degree Celsius (nearly two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) to global temperatures by the end of the century. This additional warming, though seemingly small, could have significant consequences, including more extreme weather events and economic impacts.

Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a climate organization, described the U.S. withdrawal as having real consequences for the planet and millions of people, particularly in vulnerable communities. Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, estimated that the extra tenth of a degree could expose an additional 140 million people to dangerously hot conditions and increase the risk of ice sheet collapse in Greenland and Antarctica, while also costing the global economy approximately $1.2 trillion.

Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, suggested that the U.S. impact might be even greater than calculated, as its reduced efforts could lead other nations to scale back their own climate actions. Climate scientist Malte Meinshausen added that the international community is weary of the damage the U.S. is causing to alliances and cooperation, and may need to shift focus away from U.S. actions.