The United Kingdom is experiencing a dry and chilly start to November, following a month of October that was wetter, warmer, and sunnier than average. High pressure has settled over the UK, bringing dry and settled autumn conditions that are expected to continue through the week.
Days will feature a mix of patchy cloud and sunny spells, with a possibility of isolated showers. Nights are likely to bring frost and fog, particularly in northern and western regions. Temperatures are predicted to be around or slightly below the seasonal norm, feeling cooler in southern England and south Wales due to an easterly breeze.
October's weather statistics from the Met Office indicate that the UK received 13% more rainfall than usual. Northern Scotland saw a particularly significant increase, with rainfall 31% above the long-term average. The wettest conditions occurred in the latter part of the month, influenced by Storm Austen and Storm Boelo. Provisional data suggests that October 24 was the UK's sixth wettest day on record. Despite the increased rainfall, the Environment Agency noted that it was not enough to alleviate the ongoing drought conditions, emphasizing the need for sustained above-average rainfall throughout the winter to counteract the effects of the hottest summer on record.
Sunshine levels in October were also above average for the UK, marking it as the fifth-sunniest October since records began in 1910. The month was also warm, with mean temperatures 0.9C above average, and Shetland recorded its joint-sixth warmest October. This marks the ninth consecutive month of above-average temperatures for the UK.
The shift in weather patterns is attributed to the jet stream moving north, allowing high pressure to build and divert major rain-bearing systems. This is resulting in predominantly dry weather for the initial days of November. A brisk easterly breeze is expected in southern and eastern areas on Tuesday, with potential gusts of 30-40 mph along some coasts and for the Channel Islands. This breeze may bring scattered showers, most likely in East Anglia and southeast England. Many northern and western areas are expected to remain dry with sunny spells after early fog lifts. Afternoon temperatures are expected to range between 11-13C, but will feel cooler in wind-exposed locations. Overnight temperatures could drop to between 3-7C, with a possibility of frost in rural parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England. Dense fog patches are also possible in these areas, while southern regions are likely to be too breezy for fog.
This pattern of overnight frost and fog in northern areas, with interspersed sunny spells and showers, is expected to continue until the end of the week, with temperatures potentially dropping slightly. Looking further ahead, a weak area of low pressure may bring patchy rain over the weekend, possibly followed by a drier interval early next week. Most computer models suggest that high pressure will eventually decline, allowing Atlantic weather systems to return, leading to wetter and windier conditions, though specific storm activity is not currently indicated.