Britain's heatwaves in May and June are estimated to have caused more than 2,700 deaths, with researchers attributing 42% of these fatalities directly to human-induced global warming. A new study indicates that 550 deaths occurred during the late May heatwave, and an additional 2,200 were linked to the 10-day heatwave in June.
Scientists from Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) analyzed the two periods of extreme heat. They found that temperatures during these events, which broke existing records, were significantly amplified by climate change. Daytime maximum temperatures across England and Wales are now approximately 3-4°C hotter than they would have been without human-induced climate change, making such severe heat events far less likely to occur naturally.
During the May heatwave, temperatures reached 35.1°C in west London. In June, temperatures exceeded 37°C in East Anglia over three consecutive days. These conditions are considered extreme even for the UK's typically hottest months of July and August.
The study utilized historical mortality records and statistical models to estimate the excess deaths. Soaring temperatures place significant strain on the body's organs, leading to increased heart workload as blood is diverted to the skin for cooling, and dehydration thickening blood, raising the risk of heart attacks and strokes.
Dr. Malcolm Mistry, Assistant Professor in Climate and Geo-spatial Modelling at LSHTM, highlighted that these heatwaves are evolving into a major health risk. He emphasized the need for swift action to adapt infrastructure, including homes and workplaces, to extreme heat, particularly to protect vulnerable populations such as the elderly, babies, and children.
While southern England experienced the highest temperatures, the death rate was similar in the Midlands, suggesting residents in this region may be more vulnerable due to less frequent exposure to extreme heat. Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit noted that the burning of oil and gas has contributed to the additional heat from climate change. He stressed that while immediate measures like air conditioning for hospitals and schools are necessary, halting the trend requires reaching net-zero emissions.
The strain on the National Health Service (NHS) was also evident, with over 3,000 people treated in corridors daily in June due to heatwaves. Officials noted that summer is now placing as much pressure on the NHS as winter. Professor Frankie Swords, NHS national medical director, pointed out particularly busy Mondays for emergency departments following weekend heatwaves. Bea Taylor, a fellow at the Nuffield Trust, stated that climate change means hospitals are facing multiple shocks throughout the summer, in addition to winter pressures.