Britain is anticipating its worst harvest on record for 2026, with farmers describing the ongoing extreme summer weather as "completely brutal." Persistent drought and a series of heatwaves have significantly impacted crop yields, with projections indicating a potential shortfall of 2.5 million tonnes for cereals and oilseeds compared to earlier forecasts. This reduction could translate to financial losses of up to £390 million for UK farmers, according to analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).
Provisional data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board suggests that wheat yields will average 6.8 tonnes per hectare, falling below the typical ten-year average. If current estimates hold, the total UK cereal and oilseeds harvest is expected to be 19.5 million tonnes, surpassing the previous record low set in 2020. This marks the fourth instance in the current decade where harvests have been among the five worst on record, a trend attributed to increasingly extreme weather events.
The UK has already experienced five heatwaves in May, June, and July. Forecasters are now warning of a potential sixth heatwave, with temperatures possibly exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in some areas, particularly in southeastern England, as August progresses. This comes after July was recorded as the driest month ever in southern England, and the driest July in England and Wales since records began in 1836. Across England, only 6.5mm of rain was recorded, representing just 10% of the long-term average.
In contrast to the prolonged dry spell in the south, northern England and Scotland are facing the threat of thunderstorms and potential flooding. A yellow thunderstorm warning is in effect for eastern Scotland, with the possibility of localized flooding, lightning strikes, and strong winds. Several flood alerts have also been issued by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. These contrasting weather patterns highlight a marked north-south split in conditions across the UK.
The extreme weather conditions this summer have contributed to a national drought. A record, dating back to 1995, was equaled when the UK recorded its 34th day of temperatures reaching at least 30 degrees Celsius in a calendar year. Another record was set when the temperature reached 33.5C in Wisley, Surrey, marking the 20th day of 32C or higher recorded in the UK in 2026. Wisley has also recorded 47 consecutive days without measurable rainfall.
Farmers are expressing deep concern about the long-term viability of their businesses. Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, described the harvest as "a real kick in the teeth" after two difficult years. He noted that even farmers previously skeptical of climate change are now worried about the future. The combination of extreme weather and high input costs, exacerbated by international conflicts, makes planning for future crops exceptionally challenging.
Analysts warn that UK farming could be entering a "climate doom loop," where repeated extreme weather events undermine farmers' ability to cultivate future crops. This situation follows a pattern of volatile weather, including the wettest winter on record in 2024 and extreme heat in subsequent years. The National Farmers' Union has cautioned that the poor yields could lead to crop shortages, with specific concerns for crops like potatoes, which stop growing above 30C, and apples, which require protection from scorching. Livestock keepers are also reportedly using winter feed reserves for their animals due to drought conditions.
In response to the heightened risk of wildfires during the dry spell, major supermarkets have begun removing disposable barbecues from sale. Firefighters have been active in tackling wildfires across the country in recent weeks.