Britain is anticipating its sixth heatwave of 2026, with temperatures expected to climb as high as 33C (91.4F) by next Tuesday. This comes after a brief period of cooler weather, as temperatures had previously dropped closer to seasonal averages. Forecasters predict a significant rise in temperatures starting Saturday, with large areas of central and southern England likely to experience highs between 30C and 33C.
Yellow heat health alerts have been issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) for the East Midlands, West Midlands, South East, South West, East of England, Yorkshire and the Humber, and London. These warnings will be in effect from 9 a.m. on Saturday, August 8, through 9 p.m. on Tuesday, August 11. Such alerts signal that high temperatures may significantly impact health and social care services, with a potential increase in mortality rates, particularly among the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions.
Continued Dry Conditions
Prior to the expected heat, the North and Scotland are forecast to experience thundery showers. However, central and southern England are largely expected to miss out on this rainfall, exacerbating the existing dry conditions. Much of the country has been left parched following two record-breaking heatwaves in May and June, which were associated with over 2,600 excess deaths. Further heatwaves in July contributed to widespread dryness in fields and parks, leading to numerous wildfires.
Meteorologist Honor Criswick of the Met Office described Friday as a "nice, dry, settled day with quite a bit of warm sunshine around." On Saturday, while Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland may see cloud and rain, other areas are expected to remain dry with ample sunshine, with highs reaching approximately 29C (84.2F) in central and southern England and eastern Wales. "Where we see the sunshine, it's going to start to turn quite increasingly warm on Saturday," Criswick noted.
Temperatures are projected to rise further into Sunday, potentially reaching between 30C and 32C in south or southeast England. While some showers may move southeastward, they are not expected to provide significant relief from the dry spell. A slight dip to around 27C (80.6F) to 29C (84.2F) is anticipated for southern England on Monday, before temperatures increase again on Tuesday, becoming more widespread across England and Wales.
Impact on Agriculture
The dry summer has had a severe impact on agriculture. Provisional figures from the Met Office indicate that July was the driest for England and Wales since records began in 1836. Nineteen English counties recorded less than 1mm of rainfall for the entire month. England received only a tenth of its average July rainfall, while Wales received 9 percent, both significantly less than in July 1911, the previous record dry month.
This year's prolonged hot and dry weather is also projected to significantly affect crop yields. Farmers have warned that 2026 could see the worst harvest on record. Early forecasts from European and US agricultural bodies had predicted UK yields to be at or above ten-year averages. However, updated data suggests wheat, barley, and oat yields will be lower. If current estimates hold, the UK cereal and oilseeds harvest could be 19.5 million tons, potentially making it the worst on record since 1984, even with good yields for oilseed rape. The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates this shortfall could cost UK farmers up to £390 million.