A "Super El Niño" weather phenomenon is poised to disrupt winter plans across Europe, with forecasters predicting significantly less snowfall than normal, potentially impacting ski resorts at lower and mid-elevations.
According to Andrej Flis, a senior meteorologist at Severe Weather Europe, a dominant mild Atlantic airflow is expected to drive widespread snowfall deficits. Popular destinations such as Les Gets and Morzine in France, and Saalbach-Hinterglemm and Mayrhofen in Austria, are identified as being among the most at risk.
Models suggest that resorts situated at higher elevations, around 1,800 to 2,000 meters in the Alps, such as Val Thorens and Tignes, are more likely to experience favorable snowy conditions. Flis noted that overall, models indicate a "well below-normal snow season across Europe," characterized by a high-pressure ridge and a North Atlantic low-pressure zone contributing to a milder westerly flow into the continent.
"Below-normal snowfall does not mean no snowfall at all. It just means less snow than the long-term average," Flis stated. He elaborated that an area averaging one meter of snowfall over a winter might see as little as 25 centimeters.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate cycle that alternates between warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases every two to seven years. During an El Niño phase, the trade winds that typically move warm water across the Pacific weaken or reverse, preventing cooler deep ocean waters from surfacing off the South American coast. This leads to warmer surface waters, which can elevate global temperatures and disrupt weather patterns worldwide.
Flis indicated that the upcoming European ski season will largely depend on elevation and latitude. Forecasts for November suggest below-normal snowfall for most areas, pointing to a delayed start to the snow season, even at higher elevations. December forecasts also show below-normal snowfall in lowlands, with exceptions in the far north, attributed to a warmer westerly to southwesterly flow.
The pattern is expected to persist into January, with the southern high-pressure ridge continuing. February, typically a snowier month, could see the strongest snowfall deficits due to this persistent ridge.
Experts have warned that the current El Niño event is strengthening and could continue to impact global weather patterns until at least February. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific region at the heart of the El Niño are already significantly above average, with some underwater areas reaching up to 8°C above normal.
"A Super El Niño tends to bring widespread snowfall deficits over Europe, specifically over the northwest, southern, and north-central regions," Flis explained. He attributes this to the mild westerly flow from the Atlantic and a southerly ridge keeping temperatures too high for widespread snow cover, except at higher altitudes.
Resorts identified as most at risk due to lower elevations include Kitzbühel, Austria (800m); Schladming, Austria (745m); Mayrhofen, Austria (630m); Saalbach, Austria (1,000m); Morzine, France (1,000m); Les Gets, France (1,172m); and Megève, France (1,100m).
Grahame Madge, Climate Science Communicator at the Met Office, commented that while El Niño influences global weather, the relationship with European snowfall is complex, depending on various factors including temperature, storm tracks, and interactions with other climate drivers. He noted that predictions at this stage are preliminary, as the final outcome depends on the interplay of these drivers.
For the UK, warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific are expected to send "waves" through the atmosphere, potentially altering the jet stream's course and leading to a cold and stormy winter. While the timing of these storms remains uncertain, current predictions suggest an increased likelihood of severe weather.
