Global ocean temperatures have surged to a record high, signaling an intensification of the Super El Niño phenomenon, according to new data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The average global sea surface temperature (SST) reached 20.96°C (69.7°F) in July, surpassing the previous record set in 2023.
Much of this extreme ocean heating is attributed to exceptionally high temperatures in the Tropical Pacific, the origin point for El Niño events. C3S forecasts that these conditions are set to strengthen further in the coming months. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) previously predicted that El Niño would steadily develop into a 'strong' event between August and October, potentially becoming one of the most intense El Niños on record.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate cycle that alternates between warm El Niño and cool La Niña phases every two to seven years. During an El Niño phase, trade winds in the Pacific weaken or reverse, preventing cold water from upwelling and leading to a buildup of warm surface water. This excess heat eventually spreads, elevating global average temperatures and contributing to severe weather events worldwide.
Scientists are observing that SST in the Pacific and globally is hotter than at this time of year historically. The WMO's projections suggest SST could exceed 2.9°C (5.2°F) above the seasonal average in key regions, a significant increase that could amplify weather disruptions.
While El Niño has an indirect effect on the UK's weather, its global scale has far-reaching consequences. The cycle is expected to cause significant shifts in rainfall patterns. Areas like the Horn of Africa, western North America, and parts of Central Asia are forecast to experience wetter conditions and increased flood risks. Conversely, Northern Europe, Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and southern Central America may see below-average rainfall.
These global impacts coincide with already extreme weather in Europe and Asia. Western Europe recorded its hottest June-July period on record, with average temperatures at 21.62°C (70.9°F), nearly 2.79°C (5°F) above the monthly average. This heat has been exacerbated by persistent high-pressure systems, trapping heat and contributing to widespread drought.
In the UK, England and Wales experienced their driest July in 190 years of Met Office records, receiving only about 10% of the average rainfall. Some areas, like Wisley in Surrey, have gone over 50 days without rain. This prolonged dry spell has led to significant drought conditions and increased the risk of wildfires across Europe, particularly in France, Spain, and Greece. By July 30, France had already recorded over 91,000 hectares of burned land, surpassing the previous full-year record and significantly exceeding the 20-year average for burned areas.