Global ocean temperatures have reached a record high, with sea surface temperatures (SST) soaring to 20.96°C (69.7°F) in July, data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reveals. This surge is a significant indicator that a "Super El Niño" is strengthening and is expected to intensify further in the coming months.
The record heat is largely attributed to exceptionally high temperatures in the Tropical Pacific, the origin point of the El Niño phenomenon. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted that El Niño will steadily strengthen into a "strong" event between August and October, potentially becoming the most intense El Niño ever recorded. This could lead to SST exceeding 2.9°C (5.2°F) above the seasonal average in key regions.
El Niño's Global Impact
El Niño is a naturally occurring weather cycle that alternates with La Niña phases every two to seven years. During an El Niño phase, trade winds that typically move warm waters away from South America towards Australia weaken or reverse. This prevents cold water upwelling, leading to a buildup of hot water near the surface in the equatorial and tropical Pacific. This heat eventually spreads, elevating global average temperatures and causing severe weather disruptions worldwide.
The strengthening El Niño is forecast to influence rainfall patterns significantly between August and October. Regions such as the Horn of Africa, western North America, and parts of Central Asia are expected to experience wetter conditions with a considerable risk of flooding. Conversely, Northern Europe, most of Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and southern Central America are likely to see below-average rainfall.
Extreme Heat and Drought in Europe
Europe is already experiencing extreme heat and drought. July marked the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in western Europe, resulting in the hottest June-July period on record for the region. Average temperatures reached 21.62°C (70.9°F), a staggering 2.79°C (5°F) above the monthly average, breaking the previous record set in 2022.
Persistent high-pressure systems have trapped heat over western Europe, amplifying widespread drought conditions. C3S data indicates a significant drop in ground moisture levels across Europe, particularly in France, Spain, Germany, and the UK. England and Wales recorded their driest July in 190 years, receiving less than 10 percent of the monthly average rainfall. Some areas, like Wisley in Surrey, have gone 51 days without rainfall.
The extreme heat and drought have fueled devastating wildfires across Europe, especially in France, Spain, and Greece. By July 30, the European Forest Fire Information System had recorded 341 square miles (91,024 hectares) of burned land in France, far exceeding the 20-year average and making some fires in the Gironde region among the largest since World War II.
Scientists note that climate change is increasingly contributing to the hot and dry conditions that favor large, high-intensity wildfires in southern Europe, while also extending the fire season northward. The current Super El Niño event is expected to exacerbate these conditions globally.