Super El Niño Reaches Unprecedented Strength, WMO Warns of Global Weather Chaos

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that the current Super El Niño is reaching an "unprecedented in strength" phase, with new figures suggesting sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise as much as 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027. This intensity significantly exceeds the 0.5°C anomaly that defines an El Niño event.

"This is literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades," stated WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. She added that while El Niño is expected to peak towards the end of 2026, its impacts will be felt long after.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle, part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases every two to seven years. During the El Niño phase, the trade winds carrying warm waters from South America toward Australia weaken or reverse, preventing cold water upwelling and causing a buildup of hot water in the equatorial and tropical Pacific Ocean.

This phenomenon disrupts global temperature and rainfall patterns, leading to a range of extreme weather events. The WMO's latest outlook indicates that extreme weather is already occurring due to the current El Niño and is expected to intensify and cascade as the event strengthens.

Regional forecasts predict varied impacts. Europe is likely to experience above-average temperatures and slightly wetter-than-normal conditions from November to January. Africa will see warmer temperatures, with increased rainfall in the Greater Horn of Africa but drier conditions in southern parts of the continent. Much of Asia is forecast to have above-average temperatures, with increased rainfall expected from the Arabian Peninsula through Central and Eastern Asia.

In the Americas, North America is expected to be warmer than average. Northern South America may experience drier weather, while the southeast of the continent could be wetter. Australia is forecast to see above-average temperatures and slightly increased rainfall.

Despite the concerning outlook, the WMO emphasizes that preparation is still possible. "A powerful El Niño does not have to be a recipe for humanitarian disaster," Saulo said. "We have the science, the forecasts and the early warning systems to save lives and protect livelihoods. What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities."