Super El Niño conditions have officially begun in the tropical Pacific and are now rapidly strengthening, according to scientists cited by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The WMO's latest forecast indicates that El Niño is expected to grow into a 'strong' event between July and September, with its influence continuing to strengthen through the autumn and impacting numerous global regions.
Weather models show a consistent and significant warming trend in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, with predictions that these temperatures will exceed 2°C (3.6°F) above average in key areas driving the El Niño cycle. Other ocean regions, such as the equatorial Atlantic Basin, are also expected to remain well above average. This natural warming cycle is anticipated to intensify the effects of climate change, potentially leading to catastrophic extreme weather events globally.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the strengthening El Niño will "intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world." She added that El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event, as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climate cycle that significantly influences year-to-year weather variations. It shifts between a cooling La Niña phase and a warming El Niño phase every two to seven years. During El Niño, the trade winds across the Pacific weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to accumulate in the tropical Pacific. This accumulation of warm water can elevate global average temperatures and disrupt weather patterns worldwide.
Scientists have confirmed that the Pacific Ocean surface has warmed past the threshold for El Niño conditions to officially begin. Over the oceans, the Pacific already displays signs of a rapidly intensifying El Niño, with an over 80% likelihood of above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon typically peaks between November and February, with its strongest influence on global temperatures felt in the year following its onset.
The WMO predicts an "overwhelming likelihood" of above-average land temperatures between 60°S and 60°N, encompassing most populated areas on Earth. This comes as some regions are already experiencing extreme heat. The United Kingdom recently recorded its hottest June day, with temperatures reaching 37.3°C, and provisional figures indicate it was the hottest June on record for the country. France has also grappled with deadly heatwaves.
While current heatwaves are not directly caused by El Niño, experts anticipate that the intensifying weather pattern will contribute to extreme heat globally this summer. Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit noted that an intensifying El Niño is "set to add more heat into our climate, driving temperatures up almost everywhere in the coming months." Although its influence on British weather is indirect, a strong El Niño could amplify climate change effects and reduce rainfall in Northern Europe.
Further predictions suggest potential impacts on the UK, including hotter summers in 2026 and 2027 and an increased risk of significant cold spells in the winter of 2026/27, depending on how the event unfolds. El Niño is also expected to affect global precipitation patterns, potentially leading to lower-than-average rainfall in northern Europe.