Climate models indicate that the current Super El Niño is strengthening, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasting a 'strong' event between August and October. This powerful climate pattern is expected to contribute to above-average global temperatures and cause substantial alterations in rainfall patterns worldwide.
According to the WMO, sea surface temperatures in key regions are projected to exceed 2.9°C (5.2°F) above the seasonal average. While El Niño events typically peak between November and February, their most significant influence on global weather often extends into the early part of the following year. This suggests that the current effects are just beginning to manifest from what experts are describing as one of the most potent El Niño events on record.
António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, stated that the strengthening El Niño is exacerbating a planet already experiencing extreme heat, widespread wildfires, and record ocean temperatures. Scientists have been closely monitoring the warming of critical Pacific waters, which exceeded 2.1°C (3.8°F) above average in July, with forecasts indicating further increases.
The WMO also noted that this El Niño coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a phenomenon characterized by warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean and cooler waters in the eastern part. This combination can amplify climate risks, including drought, flooding, and wildfires, particularly around the Indian Ocean.
While El Niño's direct impact on the weather in the United Kingdom is indirect, the global scale of its effects is anticipated to have ripple consequences. Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, emphasized that the developing El Niño, occurring against a backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat, provides an opportunity for governments and communities to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts.
The most direct consequence of the intensifying El Niño is the expectation of above-average global temperatures extending into the next year. While El Niño itself is a natural climate pattern, its effects are combining with human-caused global warming, potentially leading to extreme temperatures globally. Regions expected to experience significant effects include Southern Europe, Africa, East Asia, Central America, South America, New Zealand, and the Caribbean.
Changes in rainfall patterns are also anticipated between August and October. Areas such as the Horn of Africa, western North America, and parts of Central Asia may experience increased rainfall and a higher risk of flooding. Conversely, Northern Europe, most of Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and southern Central America are predicted to have below-average rainfall.
These warnings come as many parts of the world are already contending with extreme heat and wildfires. Europe has seen extensive wildfires in France and Spain, leading to mass evacuations. England and Wales recorded their driest July on record, with rainfall significantly below the long-term average. East Asia has also experienced record-breaking heatwaves, with South Korea reporting its highest temperature in a century.
El Niño and its cooler counterpart, La Niña, are phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern that shifts every two to seven years. During an El Niño phase, trade winds across the Pacific weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to accumulate in the tropical Pacific, which can elevate global average temperatures and disrupt weather patterns.