A "Super El Niño" phenomenon is intensifying and shows signs of developing into one of the strongest events on record, according to recent scientific assessments. New measurements indicate a steady increase in El Niño conditions across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures (SST) now 2.7 degrees Celsius above average.
Models confirm a "clear and sustained increase" in temperatures, and a majority of indicators suggest a "very strong event" that could have widespread global repercussions. Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research noted in a blog post that the 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The traditional Niño 3.4 index, a key measure for El Niño, reached +1.51°C during May–July 2026, with a monthly value of +2.03°C in July and a weekly index of +2.7°C as of August 12, 2026. These observations point to a further strengthening and evolution toward a very strong event.
Further evidence of the El Niño's strengthening comes from beneath the ocean's surface, where a significant reservoir of "exceptional heat" has formed. Temperatures at depths up to 490 feet (150 meters) are exceeding average values by more than 8°C in some areas. This substantial subsurface heat content provides a strong energy source for continued surface warming and El Niño intensification, potentially making the 2026 event one of the strongest in the historical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) record.
Current analysis predicts that El Niño conditions will continue to strengthen through 2026 and may persist into early 2027. Model projections indicate a 100% probability of El Niño persisting until March and a 94% chance of it remaining in place until May.
Global ocean temperatures have also reached record highs, a further indicator of the strengthening Super El Niño. Data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) shows that July recorded the hottest sea surface temperatures ever for that month, with average global SST reaching 20.96°C (69.7°F), surpassing the previous July record set in 2023. Much of this record heat is attributed to the exceptionally high temperatures in the Tropical Pacific.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the phenomenon is expected to bring above-normal temperatures to nearly all parts of the globe this summer. The most significant heat signals are anticipated across southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and large parts of Asia. Warmer-than-normal conditions are also expected in many areas of the Southern Hemisphere, with Northern South America and Southern Africa projected to experience the strongest warming. Australia may see warmer conditions along its western, southern, and eastern coasts, while tropical regions like Equatorial Africa and parts of Southeast Asia are also forecast to be hotter than normal.
In the United Kingdom, the Met Office predicts that El Niño could lead to a colder and wetter winter. While impacts are typically indirect, it can increase the likelihood of more unsettled weather, including milder, wetter, and windier conditions in autumn and early winter, potentially followed by colder and calmer late winter periods.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern that cycles between warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña), and neutral phases every two to seven years. These shifts disrupt global temperature, wind, and precipitation patterns by altering air movement.